MEDIUM TERM FORECAST - WILL THE WETTER SIGNAL MOVE AROUND IN THE COMING FORTNIGHT?

And are we likely to see much warmer weather in the coming fortnight, given the cooler than average signals for much of the south and southeast of the nation?


Lets take a look

Moisture Watch This Week - September 30-October 6 2021

Moisture currently over the east in easterly winds over southeast Australia is ongoing but will be picked up by a northwest to westerly flow this weekend and more moisture rushing through from WA will run across the southern parts of the nation over the weekend and next week. Another burst of moisture will move through northern Australia via easterly winds and likely be drawn south and southeast through the NT into the eastern and southeast states, but the wild card is whether it can be picked up by a weather system and produce rain.

Moisture Watch Next Week - October 7-14 2021

The pattern remains largely the same, the moisture will continue to feed into the mid latitude westerly winds and be dragged southeast through the nation ahead of cold fronts and troughs. Another burst of moisture is likely to be dragged south and southeast through the nation once again.

Rainfall This Week - September 30-October 6 2021

A lot of this to fall through the coming 2 days over the east with storms and ongoing rainfall with a deep trough and high levels of moisture. Rainfall comes back through the SWLD with widespread rainfall and thunderstorms on Friday. Showers and storms over the north will be random and scattered in line with the build up conditions most afternoons and evenings. Showers over southern Australia, patchy and light with passing troughs, heavier falls possible with a low pressure system IF it develops this time next week.

Rainfall Next Week - October 7-14 2021

Modelling is largely unchanged for the second week of the outlook period. There is a large area of 2-8mm over the east, showing the moisture and spread of models and rainfall in the medium term. Read this as the bias of rainfall again will be over eastern Australia in line with the climatic drivers and the signals we have been following for months. Some modelling, such as the GFS have returned back to another large scale low pressure system in the second week of October over central and eastern parts of the nation. There are no blocking dry patterns in place for this period.

Rainfall Anomalies Next 2 weeks

Rainfall anomalies as forecast yesterday come down after many areas recorded 1-3 months rainfall overnight and those falls will be moving east today, however into areas that have higher rainfall totals through September. There is likely to be a surge of moisture coming down from the north of the nation through next week and again the following week, with patchy rain and storms building over inland areas and the northern tropics turning more active in the second half of this outlook.

Temperature Anomalies This Week

No change from yesterday, we do have colder weather spreading over southern Australia through the weekend into next week with a westerly fetch and several waves to pass through keeping the showery weather going. Build up going strong through the north with above average humidity values.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week

No change to the heat levels over the north with the build up continuing to strengthen. The southwest remaining cooler than normal for the SWLD and parts of the eastern inland of NSW with cloudy areas and rainfall. The rainfall over the east could become widespread through this period with another low pressure system leading to days of cloud and rainfall. The tropic humidity may spread south and southeast through the nation, but be deflected through QLD via the upper level westerly winds.

DATA - More details via the video at the top.


GFS 18Z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

GFS 18Z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks


GFS 18Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

GFS 18Z - Temperature Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks





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