MEDIUM TERM FORECAST UPDATE - DRY FOR A WHILE BUT THE WEATHER TURNS WETTER NEXT WEEK.

The forecast remains unchanged from yesterday and previous days, where we turn drier and colder today throughout much of the southern and eastern inland which has been well forecast on modelling. Now we trend towards a stable and settled, dry period for much of the nation until later in the weekend, into next week.


Signals are strengthening for that wet end to September for many areas as forecast 4 weeks ago and as we track into October. Wetter as we go is the theme through Spring 2021.


The latest video update.

FORECAST - Refer to the video for more details!


Moisture Watch This Week - September 21-28 2021

Moisture to override the dry air by the weekend building through the easterly winds over the eastern inland and over the southwest with a inland heat trough deepening into a low, drawing moisture from the Indian Ocean, so quiet weather until later in the weekend into next week nationally.

Moisture Watch Next Week - September 29-October 5 2021

Moisture pouring in from multiple ports with various scenarios on the board, details in the video.

Rainfall This Week - September 21-28 2021

Rainfall lean this week, though falls come back to the eastern and southeast inland later in the period and about the SWLD with a trough.

Rainfall Next Week - September 29-October 5 2021

Rainfall increasing over the eastern and southern inland of the nation with persistent low pressure, rainfall totals WILL MOVE AROUND, this is more of a chance forecast than totals at this time, refer to video for more.

Rainfall Anomalies Next Fortnight - September 21-October 5 2021

Rainfall anomalies are coming up above average for the last week of September and into early October as the guidance has been suggesting in the longer term. Now it is a matter of finding the bullseye, in recent days that has been NSW, VIC and southern QLD. Also not bad totals for the SWLD of WA. The tropics waking up.

Temperature Anomalies This Week - September 21-28 2021

Warmer weather spreading east over the latter part of this week but still not enough to override the very cool conditions today and tomorrow, though the red shadings will increase this week for the nation as the last of the cold weather moves on by.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week - September 29-October 5 2021

Colder weather developing back through the southwest of the nation, some chance of that impacting SA and the southeast and eastern inland IF persistent rainfall does verify, so after a warmer start to this period, cooler than normal weather may return to large areas.

DATA - Refer to the video for my forecast notes and analysis, this is for revision following you watching the update.

18Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

18Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

18Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

18Z GFS - Temperature Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

Harvest 2021 Forecast for October and the first glimpse into November is expected at lunchtime.


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