MEDIUM TERM FORECAST UPDATE - CLEARLY THE WEATHER TO WATCH IS NEXT WEEK.

No real change in the guidance from yesterday and overnight, the weather is expected to remain calm for a number of days with large high pressure and dry air in place. Frosty weather over the southeast and eastern inland as well as a weak front the major precipitation points in the short term. It is next week that the pattern shifts.


Lets take a look at the latest.

FORECAST - REFER TO THE VIDEO ABOVE FOR MORE


Moisture Watch This Week - September 22-29 2021

Moisture to return from the west and east during the latter part of the weekend into early next week. The weather gradually getting wetter as we go through the outlook period from Sunday over the east and southwest and then over the southeast inland with the approach of a trough into the moisture gathering over the eastern inland. This is being modelled well at this time, note the tightly clustered arrows in the east. The wild card will be the low pressure trough moving in from the west over SA.

Moisture Watch Next Week - September 30-October 6 2021

The nation remains caked in yellow, that means moisture will be dominating this period, it is going to come down to the placement of troughs, strength of troughs and position of the high pressure belt over the Southern Ocean. Does it ridge back through Central Australia from the Southern Ocean, or is it a flat ridge with low pressure over the nation? That will greatly impact rainfall potential through the outlook period which still looks promising.

Rainfall This Week - September 22-29 2021

Rainfall comes back over the east of the nation from early next week with an inland trough, the southwest of WA with a trough later this weekend into next week and over the tropics with a build up of moisture. The southeast of the nation likely to see rainfall coming back from Tuesday or Wednesday with moisture streaming in from the northeast into a trough moving out of the west.

Rainfall Next Week - September 30-October 6 2021

Rainfall bias over the east and south with the tropics turning more active and showers increasing for the east coast of QLD. Showers ongoing for the SWLD of WA with another trough passing through and a low pressure system over Adelaide as mentioned in the video could bring higher rainfall totals than what is shown here, but forecast confidence for SA sadly is quite low.

Rainfall Anomalies - September 22-October 6 2021

No change from yesterday.

Temperature Anomalies This Week - September 22-29 2021

Warming phase is underway, despite a cold pop through the southeast during the weekend, the weather will warm up through early next week with a northeast flow, not as hot as previous weeks, the hotter values staying up over northern Australia. Conditions coming back down over the southern coast.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week - September 30-October 6 2021

Still anticipating a larger thermal gradient developing across the nation into the first week of October in line with low pressure sitting over the nation. The weather colder back in the southwest of the nation on the western flank of persistent low pressure with southeast to southerly winds.

DATA - Refer to the video to find out more of my analysis and break down.


18Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

18Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

18Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

18Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

2 weeks still image

18Z GFS - Temperature Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

I will have another update on the Climate Outlook I hope this afternoon but I have been swamped with Earthquake work, so if I cannot get to that today, I will provide that tomorrow, your state based forecasts expected after 5pm.



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