MEDIUM TERM FORECAST UPDATE

The spring see saw in temperatures expected to continue through the remainder of September, very traditional, with no prolonged periods of high heat or well below average temperatures for much of the southern and eastern parts of the nation. Rather we are seeing the high variation in temperatures continue.


This is important. For more dynamic weather systems to develop, competing airmasses must be in play for the coming 6 weeks before we say goodbye to the colder airmass as it retreats southwards.


That means the coming 6 weeks are crucial to supporting a wetter phase as per all global agencies guide - moisture, cold and hot air battling it out and a trough/cold front in play means widespread rainfall, we have the ingredients on the board, they are OUT of phase right now.


Lets have a look at the latest 2 weeks.

FORECAST - MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE VIDEO.


Moisture Watch This Week - September 17th-24th 2021

Moisture Watch Next Week - September 25th-October 1st 2021

Rainfall This Week - September 16th-25th 2021

Rainfall is generally falling within the next 10 days - the period next week is drier, however if a low does verify we could see the numbers over the northeast and north of NSW increase dramatically. Again we don't react to one or two data sets, we look for trends, and adjustments to the forecast will be made this evening if required.

Rainfall Next Week - September 25th-October 1st 2021

Moisture likely to return through the mid latitude westerly winds.

Rainfall Anomalies Next 2 Weeks - September 17th-October 1st 2021

Drier signal for now over the southeast of QLD and northeast of NSW, however this could be offset IF a low pressure system forms, at this time of this posting only GFS is supporting this system evolving later Monday, but will watch.

Temperature Anomalies This Week - September 17th-24th 2021

Major cold outbreak for the southeast and east of the nation is likely this weekend into next week, with well below average temperatures. Farmers and Graziers should be aware of this sharp shift in conditions.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week - September 25th-October 1st 2021

Warming up for the end of the month however the GFS and CMC do keep a colder bias going, which I am not siding with at this time.

DATA


18Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall - Next 2 weeks

Main focus in this evenings forecast package is how cold will the weather get next week, does this increase frost and grazing issues, and is there the chance of severe weather for the northeast of NSW if a low forms? Rainfall numbers are coming up over parts of southern and eastern Australia on this model but refer to the video to see the full data sets and comparisons.

18Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 2 weeks

18Z GFS - Rainfall for the next 2 weeks.

More details to come on the short term weather this evening after 5pm. I will have another update on the Indian Ocean lunchtime.



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