MEDIUM TERM FORECAST UPDATE

The weather over the coming 2-3 days are expected to be quite dynamic and perhaps a preview of what is to come during the Spring of 2021.


Beyond that the weather is expected to remain fairly active with the temperatures rollercoaster set to be up and running during the coming week, after the cold air blast throughout the nation, the temperatures will quickly recover and moisture return from the north and the east so this could set the stage for further dynamic weather.


Rainfall for the next 2 weeks

Rainfall heavy at times in the next couple of days in the southeast is included in this outlook so it does lend itself to looking very productive but a good amount of what is coloured in for the southeast is made up from the system coming in.

Temperatures for the next 2 weeks

Even though we have a drier and colder airmass moving through the nation over the first half this week, temperatures are anticipated to return to above average over much of the nation during the latter part of next week into the weekend.

GFS 18Z - Surface Pressure Pattern next 2 weeks.

We can already see that system coming through the southeast in the next 2-3 days and we have spoken about that at length. Beyond that, we have a high that comes through and clears out the region from mid week and increases the risk of frost, however nice sunny weather will return. Out west, the warmer weather will return briefly ahead of the next round of cold fronts which will trigger a band of rain later Wednesday for the SWLD of WA which will then run across the southern parts of the nation. The strength of this system and how fast it moves eastwards will be determined by how the low pressure system moves off in the Tasman. If it sticks around the NSW coast, then the weather from the west will be driven south. If the low moves off more efficiently, it will open the door for these systems to pass into the eastern states. In the medium term to start September, there are more weather systems spreading throughout the nation.

GFS 18Z - Precipitable Water Anomalies next 2 weeks.

The moisture being drawn into the system coming into the southeast in the next 24 hours is expected to see that moisture actualised and therefore widespread rainfall developing. Mid week the moisture returns to the west of the nation and a band of showers and storms will roll through WA with that cold front, the moisture then runs through southern Australia with the cold front, even if the system dives southeast, the upper level winds will broadcast that moisture throughout the nation. That delivers more rainfall opportunities with follow up systems to pass through the nation and there appears to be 2 more to come on this latest data, both of which would bring rainfall through large parts of the nation.

GFS 18Z - Rainfall next 2 weeks.

The rainfall is heaviest in the next 3 days and that will be removed off the chart by Tuesday and then there will be better clarity on rainfall beyond this system. The rainfall out west over WA comes through from mid next week and then there is a follow up system coming through this time next week so some reasonable rainfall develop for the west coast, above average in some locations. Rainfall will return to SA during late next week with the first front and some of that could be moderate at times. That rainfall then spreading over NSW and VIC and there are hints that it could provide a large rainfall event once again with moisture deeper over the eastern inland. Showers over the tropics primarily connected to the moisture surging through the tropics from east to west ahead of a dry surge. Possibly some east coast rainfall with troughs floating through but that rainfall offshore the QLD coast will come and go. Remaining dry over much of the interior for now but this will chop and change with the heat building further and low pressure troughs possibly developing.

Overall the medium term offers some more rainfall events and warmer weather, the growing season looks to start earlier this year, but be aware we will have frosts mid week over the eastern and southern inland as the high comes across so that could cause a few issues despite the warmer weather returning later this week ahead of the next lot of rainfall moving through WA.

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