MEDIUM TERM FORECAST - THINGS SHAKING AND BAKING NEXT WEEK.

Quieter for the remainder of this week as expected, that continues with no changes on that front. We are looking at settled weather nationwide until about Sunday.


From there things become active, unsettled, messy synoptically making forecasting somewhat tricky for next week and then diving into the medium terms.


But as always we look at the current two weeks as a story being told by the models and does the story continue along the same path?


Latest Video Blog

FORECAST CHARTS - Refer to the VIDEO for more details


Moisture Watch This Week - September 23-30 2021

Clearly the two ports of moisture to watch out of the east and northeast with an inland trough over QLD combining with a high in the Tasman drawing in moisture. The moisture may converge with another port of moisture coming in from WA with a low passing over the southern and central parts of the nation.

Moisture Watch Next Week - October 1-7 2021

Moisture still expected to envelope the nation, I may have to colour the whole nation in during next week with moisture possibly pooling in for the second week of October from the Indian Ocean via the jet stream.

Wildcard Systems - October 1-7 2021

The voodoo period of medium term modelling always throws out bogus systems on the board. I am shaded in these areas wild card systems that may produce something in future modelling, so if you see these pop up, expect them to disappear from run to run. More information on the video blog.

Rainfall This Week - September 23-30 2021

Rainfall developing over southwest WA from Sunday with a trough deepening this weekend and this may persist into next week with follow up troughs bringing rounds of rainfall through the region. Showers and storms developing over the south and east of the nation with moisture converging with troughs over the eastern inland and the one over the west combining over VIC and NSW triggering widespread rain.

Rainfall Next Week - October 1-7 2021

Widespread rainfall chances continue for the east and southeast inland, with the chance of rainfall being shared back through SA Ag areas with the secondary and tertiary system rolling through the nation in the first week of October at this time. The tropics are expected to turn soupy with widespread showers developing with thunder. And rainfall over the southwest expected to continue.

Rainfall Anomalies Next 2 Weeks - September 23-October 7 2021

Rainfall anomalies largely unchanged from yesterday through strengthening the signal of higher than average rainfall for the coming 2 weeks over the southeast of the nation in line with the IOD in negative phase and the persistence of low pressure and moisture through the region.

Temperature Anomalies This Week - September 23-30 2021

Warming up this weekend into next week with the northwest flow aloft ahead of a series of troughs bringing some warmer weather to the nations heartland through to the southeast. Cooler than average weather likely to develop through next week over WA and persist for much of next week.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week - October 1-7 2021

Temperatures are expected to remain cooler than normal from the SWLD of WA along the southern coast of SA and into VIC and TAS with persistent rainfall and low pressure passing through, the warmer weather expected to take over the central and northern inland and seasonal values through much of eastern Australia east of the divide.

DATA - Refer to the VIDEO BLOG for full analysis


18Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

18Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

18Z GFS - Upper Air Flow Pattern at 500mb/18000ft - Next 2 Weeks

Note the westerly wind belt associated with winter is retreating well to the south, inline with the seasonal shift.

18Z GFS - Temperature Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

RAINFALL


18Z GFS - RAINFALL NEXT 2 WEEKS

Ensemble Data in good agreement.

12Z EURO - RAINFALL NEXT 2 WEEKS

12Z CMC - RAINFALL NEXT 2 WEEKS

I will post the Indian Ocean Update in about 1 hour looking at that influence in the coming fortnight now that we are ALLEGEDLY moving towards the peak of the negative IOD phase.