MEDIUM TERM FORECAST - THE WILD WEATHER CLEARS THE EAST - DEVELOPS WEST - THEN STORMY AND HUMID!

Lots of weather about today with the trough lifting off the east coast, that has been covered off plenty today, so remain weather aware.


The southeast likely to see damaging winds and heavy rainfall with low developing south of VIC and then another centre of low pressure deepening off the east coast of TAS, a wet and cold period easing this weekend.


The weather then turns drier over the southeast by Sunday and nationwide we can take a breath.


Now, next week we have to keep an eye on the severe weather threats for the SWLD of WA where there is the high chance of damaging winds and heavy rainfall developing with a trough and deep low passing by Monday night through Tuesday. That system is rather anomalous for this time of year and could cause issues for farmers in the region.


The east meanwhile, likely to see easterly winds return and part of the current trough is expected to hang back and then be reactivated by this moisture and onshore winds, showers and thunderstorms likely to return to the forecasts next week, on and east of the GDR in QLD and northern NSW.


The fast moving front from WA is expected to break down as it moves towards SA mid next week and that will bring unsettled weather throughout the central and eastern states as it meanders east, hitting the block over the Tasman and becoming near stationary during the latter part of next week.


That feature will remain in place for the following week, snaking up towards QLD and then into the NT with showers and storms about in a soupy moist airmass. All thanks to the SAM trending more positive in nature.


Lets take a look

Moisture Watch This Week - October 15-22 2021

Moisture heavy through the north and east today, that moisture in the east is flushed east tonight but comes back next week. The moisture from the Indian Ocean is expected to surge into a strong cold front with a large rain event developing over WA. The tropics are unsettled with deep moisture, the dry days are over. The interior dry for now, but the moisture will return. The moisture from the northwest will be of interest as it could bring another burst of significant storm activity later next week.

Moisture Watch Next Week - October 23-30 2021

The positive SAM seems to be a good chance of bringing up humidity values from the previous week with showers and storms ongoing. Another shot of tropical moisture out of the Indian Ocean is of some interest as this could bring up rainfall chances through WA and SA too which some longer term modeling has alluded to in recent runs.

Rainfall This Week - October 15-22 2021

The seasonal shift to wet season over the north ramps up this week and over the period, populating the inland with more moisture over the coming week, so storm coverage will increase from later next week into the weekend, so the clear slot will be filled in next update Sunday. The east turns wet with onshore winds through next week, scattered showers and storms about the inland. The west has the heaviest rain event of the period, with a large and powerful front and deepening low passing through Monday through Wednesday. The remains of that system helps to bring showers and storms back to the southeast and eastern inland this time next week.

Rainfall Next Week - October 23-30 2021

Rainfall likely to continue the run being bias over the east of the nation, however, inland areas could see a long duration stalled trough through QLD extending south into NSW and VIC, bringing daily showers and thunderstorm risks. A positive SAM also lifts rainfall chances for the east coast with persistent onshore winds. That will feed the rainfall chances inland. SA for now looks benign but watch over the central interior towards the NT for moisture moving south. The west may see light rainfall with a weakening front.

Rainfall Anomalies - October 15-30 2021

Not much change from yesterday, still have the seasonal to above seasonal rainfall across the nation, I would be watching the moisture building over the north and east of the nation during next week and for the last week of the month, out of that we could see significant rainfall events redevelop and potentially more severe weather. That will continue the wet bias. And highly anomalous rainfall chances for the SWLD of WA and along the west coast and the tropics very active.

Temperature Anomalies This Week - October 15-22 2021

Colder weather for the southeast continues with a deep upper low and negative tilt trough driving severe weather risks. The southwest will turn colder with a strong low pressure system early in the new week, that will run across southern areas of that state. Otherwise seasonal conditions elsewhere, trending warmer the further north you go with increasing humidity.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week - October 23-30 2021

A cooler bias continues for the southwest of the nation, mainly due to the persistent ridging and the current trend to the positive SAM keeping the high pressure to the west of the state. The rest of the nation, seasonal to above seasonal with humid air moving south lifting rainfall chances.

DATA - More details in the video above


18Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

18z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

18z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

I am aligning myself with this forecast data set.

More details coming up with state based forecasts tonight - remain weather aware!!!!


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