MEDIUM TERM FORECAST - THE WEATHER TURNING HUMID AND UNSETTLED FOR MANY

But the west of the nation, struggling to get above the seasonal average with yet more colder air being propelled north in what is a high amplitude pattern. The weather is expected remain cooler front today right through until the end of this week.


Over in the east, the weather is expected to stay unsettled for most of this period, a storm outbreak for the first half of this week for QLD will dip into NSW today before clearing. Another trough will spark showers and storms from the tropics into SA mid week before that spreads through the southeast and eastern states.


A low pressure system may develop on this trough and lift the chance of rainfall with moderate falls for VIC and TAS this Friday into the weekend before the weather turns milder after a warm week.


By the weekend the west will warm up to seasonal values as winds veer easterly, those same easterly winds helping to propel the moisture from the tropics into the western interior of the nation, setting up inland showers and storms for much of the outback. Out of that activity comes the next storm and rain event for SA, VIC and NSW


Through the medium term, the semi permanent trough over inland QLD will oscillate west to east spreading the unsettled weather around.


The tropics unsettled and more productive than what your forecasts are suggesting, some areas could see some above average rainfall.


Finally the SAM may turn positive for a prolonged period, and the east coast may resume wetter than normal conditions for a good chunk of the medium term.


Lets take a look


FORECAST CHARTS


Moisture Watch This Week - October 25 - November 1 2021

As mentioned over recent days, the upper high over the southeast must leave and then we will see the moisture stream south and southeast, that should start to occur from mid to late week, but useful to remember the mechanics in place that is keeping rainfall dammed over northern and northeast areas of the nation.

Moisture Watch Next Week - November 2-9 2021

The upper high is gone and you can see the nation is covered in moisture, the main port coming through the tropics and shearing southeast and east over the course of the first week of November.

Rainfall This Week - October 25 - November 1 2021

Rainfall again kept over northern and central parts of the nation thanks to the upper ridge and upper high over the north. A weak front coming through SWLD will act to push out the upper ridge currently over the southeast and central parts of the nation, allowing moisture and rainfall chances to shift south and into the southeast from later this week into the weekend. Onshore winds may redevelop for the east coast from the weekend into early next week with scattered showers for coastal areas and thunderstorms inland. The tropics active.

Rainfall Next Week - November 2-9 2021

The tropics remain active and will fuel the moisture and rainfall chances across the nation. There will be pockets of organised rainfall events spreading from the northwest to southeast, with above average rainfall continuing for interior portions of the nation. Over the east coast of NSW and QLD, the onshore winds will keep the showers going and seasonal weather. Elevated humidity levels over southern and southeast parts of the nation will keep the showers and storms about and over the southwest, a heat trough is likely to kick off a few storms inland ahead of another trough coming out of the Indian Ocean.

Rainfall Anomalies - October 25-November 9 2021

The rainfall anomalies remain seasonal for most of the nation, though a wet bias can be found over northern and central parts of the continent in line with the early onset rainfall forecasts from earlier in the year. Parts of the east coast is under a weak bias for above rainfall as well as the southwest with onshore winds. This chart could turn very green in coming days if the moisture connects with all the inland low pressure systems/troughs available.

Temperature Anomalies This Week - October 25- November 1 2021

A warmer weak on the way for the southeast and central parts of the nation under an upper high and ridge, keeping skies relatively clear over SA but the air is more humid over the NT under this upper high leading to the showers and thunderstorms increasing, this may knock down temperatures by week's end. Over the southwest, the weather is expected to be cooler than average until the weekend. The east coast under seasonal weather conditions for now.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week - November 2-9 2021

Mixed temperature odds across the country with a high amplitude pattern and high moisture content. This is going to lead to inland rain and storms moving from west to east with warmer weather ahead of these features but some areas of the east and north could sit under thick cloud and rainfall during this period. The far northern tropics and pockets of southern Australia could see above average temperatures and the southwest cooler than normal under persistent ridging.

DATA - Refer to the video for more details


18Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

18z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

18z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

18z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

More details coming up in your state based forecasts this evening.