MEDIUM TERM FORECAST - THE SYSTEMS KEEP ROLLING THROUGH.

But what confidence do we have in the modelling? Well as spoken about here, on radio and TV interviews I have conducted in recent weeks, the guidance is poor with a lack of real time data monitoring the weather and that data/observation being imported back into regional weather modelling. It is back to old school forecasting.


The weather is typically volatile at this time of year, it is frustrating in any given year and no surprises there are a few pissed farmers who have missed out after the Euro model offered 30mm and you walked away with 2mm. It won't be the last time this happens this season.


Lets take a look at the latest details on what is ahead of us.

Moisture Watch This Week - October 11-18 2021

Moisture ongoing over the east will continue to move southeast and east through NSW and QLD and leave the coast. Some of that moisture may be left behind in the upper levels and then be drawn into the southeast mid to late week ahead of the next trough and then low pressure system. Another infeed of moisture may sweep into the western inland of WA this time next week with a band of rain developing on current guidance, but some modelling keeps the moisture offshore and some models bring it over land.

Moisture Watch Next Week - October 19-26 2021

Watching a large in feed of moisture from the Indian Ocean in line with the peak of the climate driver. Also have soupy air remaining in place over a fair chunk of the northern and eastern areas, inland troughs may feature (we have seen on all models this being the case but there is little consistency) and this is where rain and thunderstorms will break out. There could be extensive cloud and cooler weather following a nice burst of spring heat for southeast and eastern inland areas.

Rainfall This Week - October 11-18 2021

Rainfall ongoing over the southern NT, northern SA, much of inland QLD and northern NSW with thunderstorms producing heavy falls. The rain contracting to the east Tuesday and clearing later. Tropics very busy with showers and storms increasing with a trough stalling over the Top End. The southeast will see showers increasing from Wednesday through Friday with the passage of a trough and low pressure system. Some of those falls could surprise in southern SA and VIC so watch this space. Another round of showers and storms, more scattered than this current system, will pass over NSW and QLD later this week. Rain may develop over the SWLD this time next week.

Rainfall Next Week - October 19-26 2021

The east of the nation carries the bias of rainfall for the medium term and thundery weather coming down from northwest to southeast through the interior carries uneven distribution of rainfall for the interior, and there is no skill in giving you a chart that tells you how much you are going to get when the weather is influenced by small scale set ups. So reading this chart, the rainfall bias over the southeast, east coast, across the northern tropics and potentially that system from early next week lingering into 20th of October, that system then running across to the southeast leading to the high heat and stormy outbreak.

Rainfall Anomalies - October 11-26 2021

The widespread signals for near to above normal rainfall continues for much of the north and east, especially with the widespread rainfall ongoing today, Mount Isa moving past the monthly average already and some outback communities from northern SA into the NT and western NSW also seeing over 1 months worth of rainfall. The rainfall increases for southeast areas a number of times through the outlook and a strong system in around 1 week for the SWLD may produce 1 month's worth of rain but that carries low confidence for now. The north, well it is looking stormy and wet.

Temperature Anomalies This Week - October 11-18 2021

A colder shift for the southwest of the nation today will race inland and along the southern states with a low pressure system set to form over the southeast later this week, keeping the cold showery weather going until the weekend, so another week of below average temperatures. Inland rainfall and cloud over the coming 2 days will keep temperatures below average but the temperatures set to recover by later this week. The north remaining soupy and hot.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week - October 19-26 2021

A pattern flip likely to result in a movement of the hot and humid air from the north being drawn down ahead of a steep upper trough and cold front that will be moving through the nation's west. The front slipping away but helping to pull the heat and moisture into the southeast and southern portions of the nation. The west likely to turn cooler again after a nice warm up in the week prior. The north very soupy with rich tropical air being drawn in over the nation.

DATA - Refer to the Video for more information on below.


GFS 18Z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

GFS 18Z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

GFS 18Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

GFS 18Z - Temperature Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

More details on the week ahead for your part of the world coming up after 6pm EDT.