MEDIUM TERM FORECAST - THE STORMS TODAY - A TASTE OF THINGS TO COME FOR A LOT OF THE NATION.

A very dynamic weather day across the nation with a deep low pressure system expected to whip up severe winds and severe storms over SA, VIC and western NSW today.


We have already seen multiple warnings issued officially from the BoM. I had forecast that risk 2 days ago and I am now onto the next phase of weather to pass through over the weekend and into next week again. There is plenty of nowcasting going on with various weather weeny pages on social media. Here I will concentrate on what's next.


So the trough is expected to stall out over northeast NSW and QLD on Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. These storms as forecast, to be severe in many areas so stay tuned to the forecasts this afternoon for your respective state.


The south and southeast will return to settled conditions for the remainder of the weekend with a nice belt of high pressure coming in to bring in seasonal weather. For the west, you will see warmer weather this weekend ahead of another weak change and trough of low pressure deepens inland.


Over the tropics, the storm activity, widespread and heavy at times through scattered pockets of the Kimberly, Top End extending southwards to the SA border and through northern QLD. Cape York may remain fairly suppressed under an upper high pressure system.


Next week, the onshore winds are expected to develop on the top of a new high pressure system which will pump moisture in over the eastern inland, moisture will surge south over the NT through to the southern states and another pulse of moisture coming in from the Indian Ocean Dipole.


It is looking very active next week especially for Central and Eastern areas of the nation. The southwest you could have a break for a while.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Moisture Watch This Week - October 28 - November 4 2021

We can currently see the upper level winds pulling the moisture out of the NT into the trough moving through SA and into western VIC and NSW. Remember this sequence as it will be repeated multiple times over the coming 4-6 weeks. It is the conveyor belt of rain and thunderstorms production for the south and east. Meanwhile the west is mostly dry but that could change with another surge of moisture coming in from the Indian Ocean, that may fuel a heat trough, will look at that closer in the coming days. And the tropics very active for this time of year thanks to above average moisture values.

Moisture Watch Next Week - November 5-12 2021

The whole nation in one way or another will be impacted by deeper moisture being lifted by multiple troughs as the develop over the interior and pass through the northern periphery of the westerly wind belt over the Southern Ocean. Widespread rain and cloud is expected, especially over the eastern 2/3rds of the nation.

Rainfall This Week - October 28 - November 4 2021

Rainfall is low confidence, especially with this feature rolling through today where the low pressure system track from southern SA into VIC will dictate how much rainfall will fall over the coming 24hrs. The trough attached will spawn showers and thunderstorms tomorrow and through the weekend with moderate to heavy falls possible, again uneven distribution of rainfall in the state. The NT quite wet with moisture trapped in the region and being lifted by the diurnal cycle and troughs throughout the region. The west will stay dry and settled under a ridge.

Rainfall Next Week - November 5-12 2021

The moisture is expected to sweep south and southeast throughout the nation and continue to pool over the northern and eastern areas with favourable winds bringing in deeper moisture from the elevated SSTs surrounding us. We will have a few troughs to lift this moisture, some modelling has had more robust low pressure systems developing over southern and eastern Australia with more widespread organised rainfall. That is quite possible. The eastern 2/3rds of the nation looks wet and unsettled and humid and that is the right forecast from this far away. What we are seeing today and tomorrow through the nation is a sign of what is to come.

Rainfall Anomalies - October 28 - November 12 2021

Rainfall anomalies are creeping up for above average rainfall chances for the eastern 2/3rds of the nation bar the east coast where rainfall is already elevated at this time of year, so while wet, not over the top at this stage. The main area of impact is from the NT through SA and into VIC with the moisture being lifted to the maximum potential thanks to sharp troughs passing through and the potential for low pressure systems to evolve in the region. The west whilst drying out, will still have seasonal expectations for follow up rainfall.

Temperature Anomalies This Week - October 28 - November 4 2021

The pulse of heat coming down through the nation is contracting eastwards today with a milder southwest to southerly flow to follow a low pressure system. Cooler back over the southwest of the nation with persistent onshore winds with ridging. The warm and humid weather over the tropics will continue though the high heat values may shift over Cape York under an upper high with increasing inland rainfall chances and cloud cover mitigating the high heat content of recent weeks over the NT and WA.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week - November 5-12 2021

A cooler signal continues for much of the nation with the persistent cloud cover and rainfall potential. While it won't be cold, it is likely that the temperatures will be marginally below average, but with higher humidity values, the feel of the air won't appear cold. For the northeast, under the upper high, temperatures could remain very hot and humid.

DATA - Refer to the video for more


18Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

18z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

18z GFS Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

18z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

Stay weather aware today and throughout the coming days and pay attention to forecasts.

I have been banging on about the weather being rough for months now and it is here. So now it is up to everyone to know the risks related to their properties moving forward and hopefully we can all get through it without too many issues.