MEDIUM TERM FORECAST - THE RAINFALL SPREAD AND INTENSITY IS BECOMING CLEARER.

We have at least 2 systems on the board in the coming 10 days, mainly impacting southern and eastern Australia. But how the systems phase over the southern and eastern parts of the nation will determine who gets rainfall and when.


It is clear that SA is likely to miss out on the rainfall in the coming week, with the low developing over WA, drawing in moisture over the SWLD with showers and storms, but the moisture and the low is expected to then sweep into the Bight and bypass SA. The trough on the northern and eastern flank of the low will pass over SA, but inactive. It is only when it runs into moisture over the eastern inland of the nation is where you will find rain and storms break out.


The rainfall could be quite heavy at times over NSW and VIC with the chance of flooding returning back into NE VIC and SE NSW west of the divide.


Take away is - the guidance is strengthening for quite heavy rainfall of 2-4 inches over parts of the eastern and southeast inland of NSW and VIC.


Lets take a look

FORECAST - More details found in the VIDEO above

Moisture Watch This Week - September 24-October 1 2021

More analysis can be found in the video - but good agreement in modelling of the troughs and moisture converging over the southeast and eastern inland of the nation. Also significant moisture building over SWLD of WA will spread east through the southern nation. Tropics will turn soupy this weekend into next week.

Moisture Watch Next Week - October 2-9 2021

Moisture should be entrenched through the nation with rain and storms ongoing from the first week over the east and southeast inland. Growing indications for moisture to build up further through QLD on some modelling. Another surge of moisture from the northwest Indian Ocean will be on the approach early in the period and another surge of moisture coming in later in this period.

Rainfall This Week - September 24-October 1 2021

Not much change from yesterday where the bulk of the rain events fall in the latter part of this period and continues into the second week outlook.

Rainfall Next Week - October 2-9 2021

The rain is ongoing for southeast and eastern Australia, however we have got some growing indications that there could be a larger rainfall event over inland QLD. So rainfall numbers could change. Also numbers are picking up through SA on the latest modelling but again, this is low confidence for the region, but the signals are promising. Much of the nation will be in seasonal to above seasonal moisture.

Rainfall Anomalies Next 2 Weeks - September 24-October 9 2021

Not much change from yesterday though it is getting wetter throughout the outlook with the east expecting quite a deluge this week coming - another 1-2 months of rain is possible in some locations. Again repeating the fact that it can take one system to bring a months worth of rainfall in these climatic set ups. This follows a wet start to the month and a dry middle now wet end for the east. The tropics could turn active with moisture streaming south during the next fortnight. Some chances that above average rainfall could move into QLD as well. The SWLD could see above average rainfall via 2 rainfall events. This is when the west dries out. And modelling also increasing rainfall chances over parts of the southern outback.

Temperature Anomalies This Week - September 24-October 1

Warming trend after the fast moving cold front over the southeast of the nation, the weather rapidly warming as the flow turns northerly Sunday into Monday over the south. The weather over the southwest trending cooler, but not as cold as prior forecasts. The north, hot!

Temperature Anomalies Next Week - October 2-9 2021

Hot over the north, slightly cooler than normal over the west and southwest with near to slightly above values over the eastern and southeastern parts of the nation.

DATA - REFER TO THE VIDEO TO FIND OUT MORE!

18Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

18Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

18Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

18Z GFS - Temperature Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

I will have your HARVEST 2021 OUTLOOK - Some are getting nervous about the rainfall that is unfolding in the coming weeks and good reason if you are living over the east.


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