MEDIUM TERM FORECAST - THE NEXT FORTNIGHT LOOKING VERY ACTIVE.

The weather modelling continues to increase the risk of flooding across pockets of southeast and eastern Australia with multiple waves of low pressure lifting deep moisture in the atmosphere, the same pattern as we saw at the beginning of the month is coming back, a wet start to November matched with a wet end to November.


This is going to place stress of the river systems and catchments that are saturated, lifting the rate of flooding for the southeast and east. Flood Watches and additional warnings are likely to be issued again this weekend.


Otherwise after a lull in tropical weather, the nation's north is set to see a bump in the number of showers and storms, with severe thunderstorms possible later this weekend into next week.


The only area to miss out on the rainfall and thunderstorm activity at this time is far western WA. But even there, thunderstorms won't be far away through the SWLD and interior with deepening troughs.


Lets take a look

Moisture Watch This Week - November 16-23 2021

The moisture movement is unchanged from yesterday which is good. The main impacts to be felt through southern and eastern parts of the nation with multiple troughs. The tropical weather over the north is expected to turn more humid and unsettled with that moisture creeping south.

Moisture Watch Next Week - November 24-December 1 2021

Again much of the nation likely to be caked in moisture with deepening moisture profile expected over in the east and north, I may take out the risk for the west if the pattern firms in keeping a high ridging close to WA leading to drier air and suppressed rainfall chances.

Rainfall This Week - November 16-23 2021

Rainfall extensive and heavy over southern and eastern areas of the nation with two waves of low pressure to pass through moist air. The weather over northern parts of the nation also becoming more active with strong storms developing. As the troughs form in the short term over southern parts of WA, there may be above average rainfall with thunderstorms but this will be hit and miss. The rainfall through SA Ag Areas could also see 1 months worth of rainfall and that could be reflected through southeast areas of the nation over VIC and southeast NSW and the ACT. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to redevelop over inland QLD from next week with showers developing along the coast.

Rainfall Next Week - November 24-December 1 2021

The rainfall is likely to be featuring throughout eastern and northern Australia, with the climate drivers supporting the wet weather building over these areas. A broad scale easterly flow will help to pump moisture in across the nation leading to rain and thunderstorms for QLD and NSW, some of that may turn heavy if a trough develops in the flow pattern along the coast. The tropical moisture offshore WA may feed a trough over the western interior leading to showers and thunderstorms increasing over the region there. The tropics also more active as the tropical waves from the east approach.

Rainfall Anomalies - November 16-December 1 2021

Rainfall anomalies continue to run above average across many areas and this is in additional to record rainfall in some locations. Seasonal conditions expected over the western areas of the nation.

Temperature Anomalies This Week - November 16-23 2021

No change in the guidance for this week. A slow warming trend is likely to continue despite the rainfall threat increasing by week's end, the loss of the westerly flow and dry air is now likely to support seasonal temperatures, but with rainfall redeveloping and thick cloud this weekend over southern and eastern Australia, these areas will remain cooler. The heat levels over the north will begin to ease from the record values experienced in recent days. The west looking more seasonal at this time.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week - November 24-1 December 2021

The west may turn warmer than normal with a long fetch easterly flow with a ridge to the south of the nation. That same easterly flow will promote more wet weather for the east in onshore conditions. That moisture supporting the development of cloud and rainfall for much of the east and northern inland. That may suppress temperatures for the end of the month into December.

DATA - More details can be found in the video at the top of the page.


18Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

Will just point out that this is the driest model out of the three - and I expect it to change dramatically in the coming days.

18z GFS Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

Deeper moisture levels and elevated moisture levels will be in place for much of the remainder of November and into December

18z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

I am leaning more to this solution

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

More details coming up in your state based forecasts this evening.