An energetic and moist unstable weather pattern continues for large parts of the nation with the highest risk of not only severe weather, but well above average rainfall expected through this period as well.

The western and central areas should also be advised that even though eastern and northern areas are very active, this pattern will also bring the chance of showers and storms to your regions as well. So there is plenty happening and again, important to keep up to date on all things weather

Lets take a look


Moisture Watch This Week - November 5th-12th 2021

No change to the guidance and the events over the SWLD and the eastern states needs watching. The Indian Ocean also getting involved with the large scale low crossing the nation next week, which models are having difficulty with.

Moisture Watch Next Week - November 13th-20th 2021

The moisture may begin to move out of the west but could return once again from the west at the end of the period. The moisture over the southern and southeast states may ease but could return once again from the north and west during this period as well. There will not be a long break in the high humidity on all accounts judging by the modelling.

Rainfall This Week - November 5th-12th 2021

Above average rainfall to continue for northern areas of the nation and for central Australia with high impacts to freight and logistics expected through the outback with flash flooding risks. As we track through the east the bigger risk is to farmers with rainfall remaining very high but again areas of flash flooding will create headaches on rural and regional roads. The rainfall and humidity may start to ease over the southern states later next week.

Rainfall Next Week - November 13th-20th 2021

Rainfall over the northern and eastern areas of the nation remains very high with persistent high humidity and low pressure across the north and east. Southern areas could see a reduction in rainfall as high pressure noses in, but will watch trends, but the east and north remaining wet. The west turning drier again.

Rainfall Anomalies - November 5th-20th 2021

Rainfall remaining very much above average over many portions of the nation with significant rainfall over outback areas creating it's own headaches for freight and logistics. Rainfall creating headaches for farmers and agriculturalists with increased humidity and totals meaning disease risks increase. Severe weather from flash flooding seeing some areas record achieve record rainfall totals.

Temperature Anomalies This Week - November 5th-20th 2021

The next 2 weeks looks cooler than normal thanks to the copious cloud cover and the extensive rainfall coverage, especially in the next 7-10 days. There may be some recovery in temperatures come mid month ahead of the next wave of wet weather to finish off November.


18Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

18z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

18z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

12z Euro Temperature Anomalies - Next 15 days

More weather coming in your state based forecasts this afternoon and later on tonight a special Friday night edition of all things rainfall and the model data analysis.