MEDIUM TERM FORECAST - TAKING US THROUGH TO MID MONTH.

The modelling has certainly changed a lot overnight, which I covered off in the shorter term forecasts.


Lets deep dive a little bit into the system developing later in the weekend over the southeast and into next week over the east, and the moisture circulating over northern Australia and IF that can come further south into SA and the southeast states again into the fourth week of September.


The latest video below for the medium term. Note there is a lot of movement on the board and so this forecast will continue to be updated daily - also if you are wanting to know more about rainfall - there are the state based forecasts updated in the evening and the model wrap updated at 9pm.

FORECAST CHARTS


Moisture Watch This Week

Largely unchanged from yesterday though have circled an area to watch during the coming 24hrs in modelling, at this time I am not drawing that into my rainfall charts, but lets bookmark the idea for the coming days, to see how this evolves. I will introduce the risk of a few showers spreading further north later in the weekend into early next week from a stronger front moving northeast this weekend. Could be cold and showery through the southeast, and if this is the case, then we have to watch where the cold air goes. If the system is further south, then the cold air may push into the Tasman and send up another shot of dry air through the mainland early next week clearing the chance of rainfall out of the eastern inland and we will have to wait for the moisture to reset over northern Australia and watch that come south and southeast mid month.

Moisture Watch Next Week

The moisture looks to pool on most of the models over northern Australia, following the last of the cold fronts over the southeast. This may see a trough lift moisture through eastern WA into SA from later next week with rain and thunderstorms break out over the outback. Another trough over the eastern inland could see showers and thunderstorms develop in scattered pockets over NSW and QLD. There are signals for a stronger front/trough to come through and lift the moisture into an organised rainfall event mid month as well, which impacts SA, NSW and VIC. You can see more about that in the video.

The model split is quite evident this morning. You can see more about that in the video blog but again to repeat, this is how the forecasts differ for rainfall from one model to the other.


GFS 12Z Rainfall next 10 days (curated forecast off the data sets this morning)

Euro 12Z Rainfall next 10 days (curated forecast off the data sets this morning)


MY FORECASTS


Rainfall for the coming 7 days. September 7-14th 2021

LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MOISTURE NOW BEING PROJECTED ACROSS THE NATION

Rainfall for the following 7 days - September 15-22 2021

Low confidence as models develop troughs over many parts of the nation, with a bias over the east with the SAM trending more positive in the coming two weeks. But expect this to change as we see models start to introduce new weather systems, and in spring time the models are more volatile (as we have seen this morning).

Rainfall Anomalies - September 7-22 2021 - Low confidence in the modelling at the moment with weather systems starting to emerge on the short and medium term forecasts.

Temperature Anomalies - September 7-14 2021

Temperature Anomalies - September 15-22 2021

I will have another wrap of the models coming up tonight after 9pm regarding rainfall chances in the medium term - the guidance is continuing to be poor as it is still a little too far out. But if you are wanting rainfall then watch this space, if you are not wanting rain, watch this space. It is that time of year where modelling remains volatile in the spring and summer.