MEDIUM TERM FORECAST - SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK, WILL IT RETURN??

That is the question that many of you have, is this a once off event that we need to deal with or is it set to return into the medium term? Well my forecast analysis of the current climatic situation leading into the end of the month is yes, more of this rainfall and thunderstorm activity is set to return to forecasts.


Let's take a look at the latest details.

FORECAST

Moisture Watch This Week - November 8-15 2021

Moisture is in the process to move eastwards during this week into the weekend with a large scale low pressure system moving from WA, through SA and into the eastern states. A surge of drier air will follow this system and see a cooler and drier spell develop this weekend for much of the nation. The tropics and much of QLD expected to stay humid and unsettled until this weekend.

Moisture Watch Next Week - November 16-23 2021

The moisture is expected to recycle south and east through the nation thanks to high pressure developing over the southeast and sending the winds into the east over the eastern states. The flow will shift sultry northeasterly over the northern tropics with that air running down into WA into a heat trough leading to more unsettled weather over the western interior. Then this runs through SA and into the southeast and eastern states from about the 18-19 of November.

Rainfall This Week - November 8-15 2021

Rainfall clearly the big issue this week and as mentioned, your number will vary, with some areas last night exceeding 130mm in a sitting!!! Some areas missing out altogether. Now that said, the system passing through mid to late this week offers the most widespread rainfall for the nation, from WA, through SA, into the eastern states, where the heaviest rainfall will be dictated by the path of the low pressure system and that becomes clearer from tomorrow. But widespread rainfall, yes.

Rainfall Next Week - November 16-23 2021

Rainfall clears from the west during the middle of the week and by this weekend most of the nation's south will be dry and cooler. Then the rainfall through this period likely to be up over the northern tropics as well as the east coast with onshore winds. The weather over the west turning unsettled with deeper moisture being drawn into a heat trough with showers and thunderstorms developing. This weather will eventually fold over the southeast and eastern inland of the nation during this period.

Rainfall Anomalies - November 8-23 2021

Rainfall anomalies off the charts this week but the values do settle back to normal values from later this week into the weekend, with the above average rainfall forecast to continue over the northern tropics throughout this entire period. So this chart covers the rainfall event of this week.

Temperature Anomalies This Week - November 8-15 2021

The cooler and humid values continues for the coming period with excessive cloud cover meaning the lack of sunlight leads to the lower temperatures forecast. Then we have a cooler southerly shift later this week from west to east and this brings a 2 day period of cold conditions as that rolls through your region, before the recovery of temperatures begins later in the weekend. The tropics also seeing a reduction in temperatures.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week - November 16-23 2021

The weather beginning to warm up over the north and west will begin to spread further east during this period, but once again, that same cycle will continue. The warmer the air gets, the more moisture it will hold and this period looks to become warmer and more unsettled, so despite the improving temperatures, it is likely to be short lived before the rainfall returns with thick cloud cover. So warming up over the inland is not always a good thing in this climate, especially when there is moisture floating about.

DATA - More information can be found in the video.


18Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

18z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

18z GFS Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

18z GFS Temperature Anomalies - Next 16 Days

18z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

More weather coming up with your state based forecasts this evening after 6pm EDT.