MEDIUM TERM FORECAST - SEVERE WEATHER THIS WEEK BUT MORE MAY BE LURKING END OF MONTH.

No doubt the focus of most weather agencies now is the severe weather event this week, that has been well documented.


But what about next week and will we see a reduction in the humidity and rainfall, enough to get farmers back into harvest mode for a number of days, not just one day here and there? A lot depends on how much rainfall and flooding occurs in the short term, but also follow up rainfall events.


Freight and logistics across the nation will be impacted by the severe weather with flood watches in most states with this system and the chance of flooding cutting off outback roads for a period in the short and medium term.


A lot to get through - let's take a look.

FORECAST

Moisture Watch This Week - November 9-16 2021

Moisture is in the process to move eastwards during this week into the weekend with a large scale low pressure system moving from WA, through SA and into the eastern states. A surge of drier air will follow this system and see a cooler and drier spell develop this weekend for much of the nation. The tropics and much of QLD expected to stay humid and unsettled until this weekend.

Moisture Watch Next Week - November 17-24 2021

The moisture is expected to recycle south and east through the nation thanks to high pressure developing over the southeast and sending the winds into the east over the eastern states. The flow will shift sultry northeasterly over the northern tropics with that air running down into WA into a heat trough leading to more unsettled weather over the western interior. Then this runs through SA and into the southeast and eastern states from about the 18-19 of November.

Rainfall This Week - November 9-16 2021

Rainfall remains the big issue this week and should begin to ease from the west Wednesday, clearing SA Thursday into Friday and then the eastern inland late Friday through Saturday. The showery weather remains in place until Sunday over the southeast and the tropics remain active. To kick off next week, limited rainfall opportunities.

Rainfall Next Week - November 17-24 2021

Moisture recycles around the north of the nation in troughs over the east and the west and the moisture creep southwards will reintroduce rainfall chances from the middle of next week right through until the end of the month. It will once again get wetter as we go through the remainder of the month following the drier surge of air from the south this weekend.

Rainfall Anomalies - November 8-23 2021

Excessive rainfall leading to well above average rainfall numbers are expected to feature throughout the coming 2 weeks, mainly thanks to this event passing through and then the follow up rain and thunderstorms from about the 18th of November onwards which has potential to become heavy and widespread once again under broad scale easterly winds and slow moving troughs.

Temperature Anomalies This Week - November 9-16 2021

The cooler than normal weather continues this week for much of the nation, especially from mid to late week initially with the thick cloud cover and periods of heavy rain, but in the southerly winds that are to follow the low pressure system ahead of the ridge. That will send a nice pulse of drier cooler refreshing air through southern and eastern then into central parts of the nation later this week through the weekend. Temperatures begin to recover towards seasonal over the west this weekend into next week.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week - November 17-24 2021

A warmer and more humid airmass likely to develop through northern and central parts of the nation before we see that warmer air shift southwards. There is still no evidence of searing dry heat across the nation at this time. So temperatures marginally above average for a number of days through this period but will quickly be overrun with cloud and rainfall chances bringing values back down.

DATA - More information can be found in the video.


18Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

18z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

18z GFS Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

18z GFS Temperature Anomalies - Next 16 Days

18z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

More weather coming up with your state based forecasts this evening after 6pm EDT.