MEDIUM TERM FORECAST - MORE SHOWERY WEATHER NEXT WEEK FOR THE SOUTH - ANY MORE SEVERE WEATHER?

The last of the severe thunderstorms are expected today through the east and once we get through that the conditions begin to settle right down with a drier airmass developing over the weekend.


For the southwest we have showers and storms increasing today with some potential for severe weather with that thunderstorm activity as well.


Next week, the fronts from the west, will help to sweep out the moisture and unsettled weather over the inland areas of the nation, but a cooler and showery week for the south and southeast can be expected, continuing the run of below average temperatures.


Lets take a look at the latest forecast


Moisture Watch This Week - October 1-7 2021

No change from yesterday with the up coming week seeing moisture absorbed into the westerly winds aloft and lifted into showery bands with trough and frontal weather over the southern states. The tropics, becoming soupy, even though an upper high is present, the moisture is sitting under that dome, and will be drawn southeast and east through the coming week, possibly merging with a stronger system this time next week over the eastern or southeast states.

Moisture Watch Next Week - October 8-15 2021

The whole nation is covered. This reflects the moisture turning very moist over the north and as you can see, due to the models diverging, the confidence in placement of precipitation is quite low. So I do expect we will see a major rainfall development with the westerly wind regime continuing to drag moisture in over southern states. This could converge over the southern and eastern inland mid month.

Rainfall This Week - October 1-7 2021

Rainfall for the east coast largely for today and then it is dry for a while. The south showery with frontal weather passing through. I am not drawing in the major rainfall potential mid to late next week over the southern states as some models suggest. Rainfall over the SWLD peaks today with further showery weather due through the coming week.

Rainfall Next Week - October 8-15 2021

The rainfall is spreading throughout the nation, but it is ill defined with no major rainfall event just yet, but there is a rainfall bias once again over the east and north with the tropics turning active, the upper high moving on, allowing more rainfall even though it will be hot and over the east, it is likely to turn thundery and showery with inland troughs redeveloping. For the remainder of the nation keep watching the northern tropics.

Rainfall Anomalies Next 2 weeks - October 1-15 2021

Broadly seasonal with a slight bias to above average rainfall, but again that light green is near normal values. The bias over the north, southeast and southwest continues to be the theme at this time.

Temperature Anomalies This Week - October 1-7 2021

Cooler bias starting to ease a tad over the southeast but really the coming week will be generally cooler than normal over the southwest and marginally cooler over the south and southeast. Above average temperatures continue over the northern tropics in line with the early build up.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week - October 8-15 2021

The weather is cooler over the eastern inland and about the southwest but I am thinking some of the models are going too hard on the cooler bias, we will see. Over the north the higher confidence continues in the warmer than average weather expected.

DATA - Refer to the BLOG VIDEO


18Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

18Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

18Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

18 GFS - Temperature Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

More details on the next 6 weeks coming up soon