It is spring time in Australia and that means unpredictable weather, large fluctuations in temperature and surprise rainfall. But we need a little more SURPRISE rainfall in some areas, not so much in others.
Lets take a look at the latest.
FORECAST - More details can be found in the video about each of these charts.
Moisture Watch Week 1
Moisture Watch Week 2
Rainfall this Week - September 13-20th 2021
Rainfall Next Week - September 21-28th 2021
Rainfall Anomalies - Next 2 weeks - September 14-28th 2021
Temperature Anomalies - This Week - September 14-21 2021
Temperature Anomalies - Next Week - September 21-28 2021
DATA - More details on these sets can be seen in the video but for this needing to watch agian.
Upper Air Pattern - 18000ft - Next 2 Weeks
Note the high pressure in the upper atmosphere being the stubborn feature - suppressing the rainfall potential.
Surface Pressure Pattern - Next 2 Weeks
Note that high pressure system dominance at the surface bringing down the chance of rainfall for inland areas. The colder air is driving the rainfall today over the southeast inland, otherwise dry and stable air suppressing rainfall chances for now.
Humidity/Moisture Values - 5km above your head.
Need to see more organised intrusions of moisture coming down from the north and northwest into the fast flow pattern over the south and to have less high pressure, for rainfall to return. The cloud band coming through this week will be elevated and producing patchy rainfall. Once the cloud band hits the topography over the southeast and east and better dynamics, rainfall coverage increases.
Humidity/Moisture Values at 700m above your head.
Note the dry air being ingested over SA ahead of the system during later this week, the trough is running through a dry airmass, so it will turn cloudy, but not much rainfall until the trough hits marginally better moisture over the southeast and east, with better rainfall prospects for now. Dry air is dominating the northwest and this needs to be overridden in coming weeks to see rainfall verify from the climate forecasts not just forecast here, BUT across the board.
Temperatures next 2 weeks.
Note the brown shading, that is temperatures near 36-40C coming through the nation end of the month. If we end up with a drier end to the month, then the benefit of this heat is the development of inland troughs and this lifting rainfall chances for inland areas, but the catch is, we have to wait until October.
More details coming up later this afternoon on your state based forecasts as the weather continues to evolve. I am trying to scour through the data sets across the board which is why this forecast is a tad later today. CLIMATE DRIVERS update due tomorrow as well with a look at the ENSO for Spring and Summer on Wednesday.