MEDIUM TERM FORECAST - LOOKING AT THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER.

This week has been absolutely wild as much of the month has been, it has been a very wet month, and may nationally turn out to be one of the wettest November's on record the way it is going.


But is the stagnant weather situation set to be with us through to early December? Many needing a break in the rainfall and high humidity.


Lets take a look.

Moisture Watch Next Week - December 2nd-9th 2021

Despite the drier look on the GFS, looking at the broader ensemble data sets, the moisture is expected to linger over the east and be reinforced from the northwest, north and northeast with more rainfall developing for many areas of the nation. I may extend the impact zone through WA down into the far southwest tomorrow if the signals increase. The tropics will see their most active week so far this wet as it should leading into December but this will send moisture southwards through the nation.

Rainfall Next Week - December 2nd-9th 2021

Rainfall is expected to be biased over the eastern portions of the nation still with the rain tapering off the further west you go through the nation. However, there is now evidence of rainfall developing for central Australia and back over WA with two other troughs being picked up on the modelling across the board but there is poor clarity on where those troughs deepen. The weather over the southeast and east of the nation remains humid, unsettled but it is likely to be more persistent over northern NSW and much of QLD through to the tropics.

Rainfall Anomalies - November 25th-December 9th 2021

Near record rainfall continues for the east and parts of the outback with very high levels of rainfall to develop over the northern tropics with the deepening of troughs over northern Australia. The seasonal rainfall forecast for central and western parts of the nation may begin to turn wetter once again in coming days so the warm and dry spell this week for the west may be replaced by a humid and unsettled spell into the first week of December.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week - December 2nd-9th 2021

Not much change from the past few days but we are now seeing a warmer trend for much of southern and western Australia with ridging through water south of the nation. This will support a warmer phase of weather finally for southern and parts of eastern Australia west of the divide, but over the east coast, the onshore wind profile and cloudy skies will promote below average temperatures.

DATA - More can be found in the video at the top of the page.


18Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days


18z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days


12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

The numbers in the west are starting to increase as are numbers over the east coast in addition to what is happening in the short term so the wet bias will likely continue despite the fluctuations in the data from run to run.

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

A very wet look continues. Numbers are coming up over the west and northwest after a fairly dry week into the medium term.

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

The east is expecting quite a week week on the way, with lingering rain and storms beyond this event through next week.

More details to come this afternoon