MEDIUM TERM FORECAST - BEYOND THE SEVERE WEATHER THERE IS MORE ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE NATION.

The focus has been well documented for the southeast and east over the coming days so lets look further ahead now and see what is ahead as we move through to late October.


There is a significant chance of a nice warm up after the system clears this weekend over the south and east of the nation as a low fetch northerly flow develops, bringing in warmer air from the north and with high pressure, conditions are expected to improve with good amounts of sunshine.


Now out west, while the east and south warm up, the weather is expected to turn inclement, with an anomalous high latitude cold front for this time of year, tapping into deep moisture out of the Indian Ocean to bring widespread rain and storms to the west and south of the state. Some indications that the rainfall could increase as the system passes over inland areas and towards the SA border. Many areas on current guide, could get 1-2 months worth of rain in a sitting. There is also the risk of severe weather with damaging winds. This could pose a risk for farmers early next week.


Over in the east, a developing trough on the coast of QLD dipping into NSW may see showers increase this weekend, and become heavy next week. An upper low sitting offshore the QLD coast may see thunderstorms develop amongst the shower activity, increasing the risk of heavier rainfall. There is also a fair chance that a surface low forms out in the Pacific or Tasman Sea next week.


If that does develop, that will form a block with the high to the south and force the systems rolling out of WA south, with a period of warm and drier weather quite likely for VIC, and parts of eastern SA. But that is not set in stone. Will need to watch that closely.


Lets take a look

FORECAST


Moisture Watch This Week - October 13-20 2021

Moisture coming through the tropics, likely to be sheared eastwards and with an upper high building, the moisture may actually dry up a little for parts of the tropics. Over the east, onshore winds developing next week will see showers and thunderstorms return for coastal areas. A trough along the coast may spark that rainfall chances and increase the moisture depth. The northwest flow from the Indian Ocean will bring a big burst of moisture through WA and then into southern SA but likely to be forced southwards mid next week but it will eventually fold over the southeast.

Moisture Watch Next Week October 21-28 2021

No change from yesterday with the moisture still running out of the northwest, eventually moving through to the southeast of the nation. Plenty of moisture over the north building in response to the easterly winds.

Rainfall This Week - October 13-20 2021

A pretty wet and active week continues with a low rolling through the southeast over the coming days. We see that buzz off by Sunday with clearing over the southeast. Then weather turns wet and windy over the SWLD with a strong cold front passing through during Monday through Wednesday next week. That area of windy rainfall comes across the southern coast of SA and maybe the southeast but it will struggle against the block in the east. The onshore winds over the east is likely to see showers and thunderstorms develop in onshore winds next week. Over the tropics, active this week into the weekend before conditions ease under an upper high.

Rainfall Next Week - October 21-28 2021

Rainfall reduces across the nation, more of a bias exists over the eastern seaboard and once again over the north, with that moisture and rainfall chances spreading southeast through the nation.

Rainfall Anomalies - October 13-28 2021

The rainfall anomalies continue relatively unchanged in the coming two weeks. This week is more active than next week nationwide, with the weather contracting back to the west next week and along the east coast with onshore winds. The north will see a reduction of wet weather later this weekend and then pick up again towards the end of the month. The weather is expected to turn wetter from the last week of October for much of the nation.

Temperature Anomalies This Week - October 13-20 2021

Cold air through the southeast to persist from Thursday through the end of the weekend leading to well below average temperatures for the week as a whole. Warming up over in the west with a high pressure system moving east in the coming days shifting the winds into a hot east to northeasterly. That weather will turn colder by next week with the next cold front.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week - October 21-28 2021

No change in the guidance with a warmer spell pushing east through the southern and eastern interior with a persistent northwest to northerly flow. Higher humidity over the east will lift day and nighttime temperatures as well. The west turning cooler with more westerly winds under a ridge of high pressure moving over the region.

DATA - More details can be found in the video at the top of the page.


18Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

18z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

18z GFS Ensemble Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

12z CMC Ensemble Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

12z Euro Ensemble Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

More weather details coming up later on this afternoon and I will be tracking severe weather impacts, again a moderate to high impact storm outbreak for parts of NSW and QLD tomorrow more likely over the north of NSW and southern QLD.