MEDIUM TERM FORECAST - AUSTRALIA TURNING TROPICAL.

Well most of the continent certainly feeling the increase in humidity today and that is reflected in the showers and thunderstorms now firing up in a broad band from the tropical north through to the eastern states, on and east of a trough moving east.


There have already been some heavy falls observed through the outback of the NT through SA and into western NSW and QLD overnight and those heavy rainfall totals are ongoing this morning with severe thunderstorm warnings in place for NSW.


The weather is expected to turn wet for much of VIC and NSW later today through Thursday morning with the wet and humid weather contracting into NSW and QLD for the remainder of the week.


We have a series of troughs and low pressure to follow this weekend and next week which will impact all parts of the nation, so lets get straight into it.

FORECAST

Moisture Watch This Week - November 3-10 2021

Again the guidance fairly rock solid and we are seeing that play out now in real time. We will have another surge of moisture along these same paths over the weekend into early next week, feeding multiple troughs and bringing up the chance of rain and thunderstorm activity across the nation, especially over central and eastern portions in the nation.

Moisture Watch Next Week - November 11-18 2021

The nation again under the influence of heavy moisture content from the previous week with excessive rainfall likely over the eastern and northern portions of the nation. A separate system over the west and southwest of the nation, is likely to be lifted into showers and storms by an upper system before it moves eastwards.

Wildcard Systems - November 10-18 2021

We spoke of this yesterday and these are the areas to watch over the course of the medium term. This is likely to be the third feature on the charts, emerging over WA and then deepening over the eastern or southern inland of the nation bringing a severe weather risk with widespread rain and thunderstorms with strong winds too - IF IT VERIFIES!

Rainfall This Week - November 3-10 2021

Rainfall chances are extensive and high over much of the northern and eastern portions of the nation. We have already observed heavy falls in scattered pockets over the outback so even if you see yourself shaded in orange, know that you can still pick up 50mm with an atmosphere as saturated as advertised. We will see the rain contract to the eastern inland during Friday and then linger over the weekend. Another trough will emerge through the central interior and dive into the deep moisture profile and bring another batch of showers and thunderstorms across the south and east. Some further heavy falls are possible with this feature. Flash flooding is a risk over large parts of the nation so stay up to date with the warnings and forecasts.

Rainfall Next Week - November 11-18 2021

There may be a large scale trough develop over the SWLD this time next week and deepen into a low pressure system, again moving into very deep moisture and this seeing widespread showers and thunderstorms over southern interior parts of WA. Then that system moves east throughout SA and the NT and into the eastern states mid month with signals of heavier rainfall for the southeast of NSW and ACT into eastern VIC. But this will continue to shift around as we get better guidance, but ALL FARMERS and those on the land need to pay attention to this feature.

Rainfall Anomalies - November 3-18 2021

Rainfall anomalies are increasing daily as we see more moisture being driven south and the rainfall chances coming up as we track through to mid month. Some areas have already see 1-2 months worth of rainfall from the northwest to the southeast of the nation. This will continue to increase in coverage over the coming days, over southeast and eastern areas of the nation.

Temperature Anomalies This Week - November 3-10 2021

The warmer weather is contracting east with a humid airmass thanks to the first trough, which is expected to linger over NSW and QLD. A cooler bias out west is developing out of multiple troughs, thick cloud cover and higher rainfall chances over the southwest and southern interior parts of the nation. The north gradually seeing a reduction of day time heat values as we go through this period.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week - November 11-18 2021

The cooler bias continues for large parts of the nation thanks to a broadly unstable airmass, high humidity values with thick cloud, heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, with not a great deal of sunshine heating up the heat engine of the nation so this will set back the summer time heat for a while for the nation's south and east and keep the cooler Spring.

DATA - Refer to the video above for more details.


18Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

12z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

12z Euro Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 days

Note the high values over the north and east between 2-3 inches! Exceptional for this time of year.

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

12z CFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 6 Weeks

The signals continue to increase nationwide.

A very wet run through harvest and disruption likely and lead into Christmas as well.

More weather details this afternoon in your state based evening forecasts.





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