MEDIUM TERM FORECAST - ARE WE EXPECTING TO SEE RAIN AGAIN NEXT WEEK?

Well after this wild weather and a pop of colder and drier air, there are signals that rain and humidity is expected to return and unfortunately what we are experiencing now weather wise across the nation is likely to unfold 1-2 times before Christmas going off current guidance.


But let's look at the medium term and see what is happening next week and as we enter the final week of November as many are looking for drier and warmer weather.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Moisture Watch This Week - November 10-17 2021

The moisture surging in from the north and west as well as the east over the tropics is being drawn into the low and clearly once the low moves through to the east, drier air will wrap into this feature in southerly winds. Gradual clearance of the high humidity values will occur from the west during Thursday over SA and the eastern states during Friday and by the weekend the moisture will be back over the tropical north where it should be.

Moisture Watch Next Week - November 18-25 2021

I am afraid that there is now more evidence building for moisture to deepen to levels we are seeing currently across the country through this period, especially from about the 21-22nd of November onwards and that has been a signal for the past few days and I am now satisfied to issue this as a period of concern for further severe weather events across the nation. I can be more specific as we get closer but this is another period of difficult weather for many who are on the land for a range of industries.

Wildcard Systems - November 18-25 2021

There is a broad band of instability being highlighted by the medium term models suggesting deep moisture to be pooling through northwest to southeast across the nation with troughs lifting this into widespread showers and thunderstorms, once again for a number of days, this could be a moderate duration rainfall and thunderstorm event during this time and may lead to additional flooding problems.

Rainfall This Week - November 10-17 2021

This rainfall forecast is a guide and not the absolute. With thunderstorms your number will vary (ie 300mm+ at Samuel Hill in QLD last night alone!) But be weather aware over the central and eastern areas of the nation in the coming days. Soaking rainfall today through southern and central NSW is setting the catchments up for flooding to develop. Rainfall tomorrow turns heavy through SA and spreads east into QLD and NSW later in the day and spreads through the eastern inland during Friday before clearing at night. Storms contact to the tropics over the weekend. The west turning dry for much of this period under a ridge.

Rainfall Next Week - November 18-25 2021

The moisture over the north and east of the nation will once again combine with the waning influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole and lead to another very humid and unsettled period of weather with above average rainfall chances once again building through this time over northern and eastern Australia so once again, watch this space.

Rainfall Anomalies - November 10-25 2021

Above average rainfall is expected to remain a feature for the next 2-3 days before conditions ease over much of the inland. The showery weather over the southeast will ease early next week and rainfall returns to tropical areas for early next week. Then we watch moisture build up again in the second week of the outlook which leads to another period of above average inland rainfall and if that does occur, many areas will break November rainfall records.

Temperature Anomalies This Week - November 10-17 2021

Remaining below average in terms of temperatures for much of this week though west is turning warmer and feeling summer like this weekend into next week now we have lost the cooler days in the forecast. The east will eventually move back to seasonal temperatures by mid next week so another cool period continues for the nation.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week - November 18-25 2021

Temperatures will recover over the nation but as I have been saying throughout the spring, the warmer we get, the more moisture the atmosphere can hold (refer to the weather right now) and then it rains....a lot. And we are seeing this cycle set up once again.

DATA - Refer to video for more details on the below.


18Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

18z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

18z GFS Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

18z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

More details coming up in your state based forecast coming up this evening.