MEDIUM TERM FORECAST AND A WRAP OF THE WEEKEND WEATHER - WE SEE THE WEATHER EASE.

Finally a break in the crazy weather we have been bombarded with during the past 10 days with a high moving into the west, we have drier air surging on the northern flank of a low pressure system which is rotating through the southeast inland of the nation tonight and Saturday.


It is going to be feeling like September as mentioned throughout the week over the southeast with gusty winds, showery periods, local hail and thunder about with snowfalls developing about Alpine Areas.


In contrast, the weather is expected to be the warmest it has been all Spring with the temperatures moving above average which will continue into next week.


Showing how large the system is over the southeast, the impacts will be felt through the tropics with the drier air making it all the way to the Top End with a rare dry season type day on Monday.


But as we track through next week, the weather turns seasonal, the east becomes warmer, the coastal areas of NSW and QLD begins to feel the impacts of the SAM trending positive with onshore winds and showers returning. A deepening heat trough over the western interior of Australia will likely trigger showers and thunderstorms from mid next week, that activity moving into the southeast from this time next week.


So the trend towards humid, warmer and unsettled weather is already in view as we begin to dry out from this large storm and rainfall event which has broken many records and sent rivers into flood across multiple states.


Lets take a look.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to become more confined to the southeast from tonight with the trough that lead to further severe storms through QLD with heavy rainfall that lead to flash flooding now moving offshore. Showers and moderate falls continuing through the southeast on Saturday and Sunday before easing early next week. The rest of the nation is dry. Next week should be relatively quiet until later in the period with showers and storms increasing over the north of the nation before it becomes more humid and unsettled across interior parts, that moisture making the journey south and east throughout the nation. Meanwhile easterly winds likely to return over the east of the nation with scattered showers along the NSW and QLD coast. So much more settled for a number of days once we lose the cold showery weather over the southeast states. Tropics get a rare dry season period early in the week before that humidity returns, that highlights the anomalous weather going on across the nation.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms largely contracted to the far north of the NT with the chance of a few thunderstorms approaching SE SA and SW VIC in the late evening into Sunday.

WEATHER ISSUES TO WATCH IN THE SHORT TERM

Farmers and Graziers - Friday through Monday. A gusty cold southwest flow in the wake of the low with heavy showers and gale force winds with temperatures up to 12C below average will continue from Friday through until Sunday night or Monday. This will carry a very high risk of stock loss for those in southern VIC and extend into southern NSW and the ACT. The winds milder in the westerly flow on the east coast in lee of the divide.

Frost Risk Forecast Tuesday

This risk may be expanded into the Central Tablelands in coming forecasts so keep watching.

Riverine Flood Risk - Friday night to Saturday

Heavy rainfall is easing tonight with flooding ongoing after widespread falls. The rainfall of eastern VIC as forecast may lead to flooding tomorrow.

DATA - Refer to Video for more information on the short and medium term forecast trends.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

Note the pattern settles down but we have more major weather events that need watching from about a week from now. That will be the focus of updates moving forward as flood waters recede and we try and dry out over much of the nation.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

The drier air is surging through the nation tonight and we will see a reduction in cloud cover and rainfall over inland areas, despite cooler conditions, it will be a pleasant week with no complications. For southeast areas, the showery weather with the moist air will depart from early next week, but, note the moisture returning from a week from now and there is plenty of moisture to work with for further heavy rainfall events.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

As per above, the moisture content in the atmosphere returns from mid to late next week and we then have to watch closely to see how much of that gets involved in the system coming through WA from this time next week. Moisture also deepening over QLD and the NT from this time next week. The values again back to exceptionally high later in the run which signals more above average rainfall.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 Days

Refer to video for more details

I will have another update through Saturday - but I will taking a bit of breather tomorrow and have a major climate update on Sunday as we launch into the backhalf of November. It has been a wild week - I need a bottle of gin....



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