MEDIUM TERM FORECAST - AFTER A DRY WEEK NEXT WEEK - MOISTURE RETURNS FOR END OF SEPTEMBER

But who gets what remains up in the air, this is due to the fact we are venturing further than a week out. There is no skill in forecasting specifics, as always I like to look for trends and share them with you and that is the point of this forecast.


The latest forecast video. You can see the charts down below.

FORECAST CHARTS - You can find more on these in the videos above.


Moisture Watch This Week

The dry air surging north from the Southern Ocean will keep much of the nation dry after this surge of moisture passes through the central and eastern inland of Australia.

Moisture Watch Next Week

Largely unchanged from yesterday.

Rainfall This Week - September 17-24 2021

Rainfall contained into the event into the southeast of the nation this weekend and a cold air surge will bring more rainfall to the southeast of the nation early next week, before the dry air suppresses rainfall chances nationwide. Rainfall over SWLD WA is with a front passing through this weekend.

Rainfall Next Week - September 25-October 2 2021

Large spread of rainfall potential for the last week of September. With the positive SAM trend, the odds are favouring rainfall returning to eastern NSW and QLD later this month and another surge of moisture from the Indian Ocean also will be available, we just have to see whether a lifting mechanism can get involved.

Rainfall Anomalies Next 2 Weeks - September 17-October 2 2021

Rainfall anomalies largely unchanged, and will be reviewed again on Sunday.

Temperature Anomalies This Week - September 17-24 2021

Highly anomalous colder air moving north through next week, so the coverage of blue will head north into the NT and northwest WA mid next week. The temperatures are expected to be well above average until Sunday which is offsetting the colder blue shading moving north, but it is spreading up to the tropics next week.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week - September 25-October 2 2021

Temperatures should recover over inland areas, but there is a split camp for southeast Australia with some models wanting to keep the below average run of weather going but the other half extending the warmth southeast.

DATA SETS - More on this data and comparisons to earlier data and my forecast analysis can be found in the video.


18Z GFS - Surface Pressure and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 weeks

18Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 2 weeks

18Z GFS - Rainfall Next 2 weeks - Latest run

12Z GFS - Rainfall Next 10 Days - Older run.

12Z KMA- Rainfall Next 12 days

Temperature Anomalies - Days of concern - Tuesday through Wednesday for Agricultural Areas.

Wednesday the colder surge heads north - highly anomalous for this time of year.

I will have my latest update on Spring and Summer coming up at lunchtime.




66 views0 comments