MEDIUM TERM FORECAST - A LOOK INTO MID OCTOBER.

After what was a wild week of weather, we are settling into a more benign period of weather with a westerly wind belt to the south and heights coming up over much of the mainland for the start of the working week. The weather is expected to turn much more active for the back half of this week with a series of troughs trying to link up with moisture.


The moisture content key to whether we see showers and storms form through SA and points east with the last of the cold fronts and troughs moving through the westerly wind regime. The models are still somewhat split so lets take a look at the latest details.

Moisture Watch This Week - October 3-10 2021

Moisture is currently being drawn through the westerly wind belt and also across the north leaving much of the inland under dry sinking air over the coming 3-4 days. However the weather starts to shift during mid to late week with the moisture from the northwest being drawn southeast into the last of the troughs and or fronts passing from the west. This offers the best chance of rainfall for the nations south and east.

Moisture Watch Next Week - October 11-18 2021

It is a similar pattern over northern Australia through this period with high moisture levels through the northern parts of the continent. This moisture likely to be drawn southeast and south into the mid latitude westerly wind regime with a significant chance of low pressure over central and eastern inland lifting this into a significant rainfall event again, the bias over NSW and QLD again. The west may be drier even with elevated moisture levels in the upper atmosphere with little trigger to spark rainfall.

Moisture Watch This Week - October 3-10 2021

Rainfall is mainly coastal for the first half of this week through southern Australia. There will be the random scattered pop up showers and thunderstorms for northern parts of the nation with deep moisture and high heat levels. Mid to late week, an impulse of moisture from the north and west will link up with a trough to deliver a broad area of shower and thunderstorm activity. The west likely to turn dry from later this week.

Rainfall Next Week - October 11-18 2021

Persistent troughing on the east coast may see showers and thunderstorms stick around for a good part of this period, with moderate falls for NSW and QLD. The weather is likely to turn more humid over the northern half of the nation which could kick off showers and thunderstorms further west throughout QLD and into the NT. The weather over the southwest and west will remain dry and a mixed bag for the southeast with a few showers about in onshore winds, but likely drying out as the winds veer easterly.

Rainfall Anomalies Next 2 weeks - October 3-18 2021

Rainfall anomalies have shifted a little over the west of the nation with less rainfall expected, but still within springtime expectations. The bias of above average rainfall opportunities still sits over the eastern and northern parts of the nation. Some of the rainfall being of a thundery nature meaning some areas could a bucket load and others getting light falls. There is the chance of an east coast trough forming off QLD and NSW which may increase showers for the east coast.

Temperature Anomalies This Week - October 3-10 2021

Temperatures still expected to be marginally below average for much of the south though coastal areas could be much colder behind frontal weather from time to time. No quite cold enough for grazing issues but you can see that it is not going to be warm this week, the west well below average behind the front early this week.. The north well above normal with the early build up continuing. Seasonal temperatures elsewhere.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week - October 11-18 2021

Not much shift over the north through this period and indeed likely for the remainder of the month. For the south, some moderation in the colder signal continues with a series of fronts likely to move further south of the nation and perhaps high pressure moving further south allowing an easterly wind regime to return, bringing seasonal, but more humid weather to much of the east and southeast. IF this occurs, the west and southwest could turn quite hot with a long fetch easterly flow.

DATA - Refer to video for more information


12Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

12Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

12Z GFS - Temperature Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

A look at the coming 6 weeks and more details for your state in the video available in an hour, with my commentary and thoughts as we approach harvest.

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