MANY RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES GIVING FALLS TO MANY, BUT A FEW WILL STILL MISS OUT.

Lets take a look at the latest model data and rainfall guidance across the board - again refer to my rating scale next to each agency to follow where I am leaning and what underpins my forecast.


SHORT TERM

The models move the rainfall off the east coast of NSW and QLD during the early part of this week coming, with moisture hanging back over the north of the nation leading to more showers and storms over the tropics, which looks likely to spread south and east again during this week. That will be thanks to a new system which passes over SWLD of WA during Monday and this wraps into a deep low south of SA and draws in moisture from the north and the east. Further rainfall is expected over southern and eastern parts of the nation along with the chance of thunderstorms. Mostly dry weather for the west following the front for the coming 7 days


UKMET - Rainfall Next 7 Days - MODERATE CHANCE.

MEDIUM TERM

Systems will be resolving over the southeast and east of the nation as the low pressure next weekend moves east and the trough over QLD continues to move offshore. A series of heat lows over the north will lead to showers and storms increasing, and watch offshore WA, a large scale system may find moisture running through a weakness in the subtropical ridge of high pressure over the Central Indian Ocean and feed a highly anomalous rainfall event into the following wee


ICON - Rainfall Next 8 Days - LOW CHANCE

CMC - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

EURO - Rainfall Next 10 Days - HIGH CHANCE

ACCESS - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

KMA - Rainfall Next 12 Days - LOW CHANCE - DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN EVENTS ON THE EAST COAST.

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

ENSEMBLE DATA

The agreement is very good across the ensemble data showing the 3 rainfall events throughout the nation's east and southeast during this time. 1 rainfall event over the SWLD moving east as well and the tropics turning more active with the showers and storms increasing and spreading south.

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) MODERATE CHANCE.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - HIGH CHANCE

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) MODERATE CHANCE

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days Control Member - HIGH CHANCE

LONG TERM

The longer term is looking very wet for the east with no change in the gudiance nationally since Friday which raises concerns about flood risks moving foward through the remainder of the month and into November. The west should see less rainfall, however all of a sudden the Indian Ocean is now having an influence for the SWLD and potentially higher up the west coast and central interior. We continue to watch. The northern tropics getting wild and active in the coming weeks. Higher humidity values to spread further south and east.

CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE.

CFS Control Member - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE.

I will have new weather updates from 7am EDT.


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