Some weak signals for a cloud band next week could improve the dry soil profile over parts of Southern Australia, which is continuing to endure a prolonged Autumnal dry spell. Now while this is not uncommon at this time of year, we are getting to a crucial time of year with many thinking about when the next rain is on the way as many operations go into full speed after Easter.
Simulated Satellite Imagery - Next 7 Days
The latest output from the GFS is suggesting a cloud band developing but as mentioned through the morning video, the whole band will not be producing rainfall, we will likely see rainfall developing next week. The rainfall more widespread as the moisture is collected by a cold front, the timing of the front standing up over Southern Australia will determine who gets what. Note the wave pattern in the Southern Ocean and the moisture interacting with that wave pattern from the northwest.
Current Soil Moisture Profile
We can see catchments in the east of the nation are very damp, the flooding is slowly easing but this region of eastern NSW does not need any rainfall for a while. The areas along the southern coastline from VIC through SA need the rainfall, with many Ag Areas a little dry and needing a bit of a top up fall. Water storages are looking good throughout much of the nation but we need mother nature to intervene with some rainfall.
Forecast Soil Moisture Profile.
You can see the impact of a cloud band over the nation through next week leading to a rain band forming from southern WA through SA and into western VIC and NSW. The better rainfall looks to impact SA on early prognostics and that could bring some relief to many in Ag SA. With some luck we could see some further rainfall developing beyond this period to top up falls in Southern Australia.
More to come on this developing rainfall during the Easter Weekend, this is a broad look at a system that will chop and change, offer rainfall to some areas, then taking it away, so the forecast is expected to remain low confidence until about Easter Saturday.