This is now becoming a clear focus for many in Agricultural Areas throughout western, southern and southeast/eastern inland areas of the nation as we may be staring down the barrel of the first major impacts of the Negative Indian Ocean Dipole Phase.

I will have more on the Indian Ocean mid-week with a deeper dive into where it is at and what to expect in the weeks ahead, but for now let's look at the dynamic weather that is building throughout the medium term.



July 31st - August 15th, 2022

Moisture Watch

The moisture is largely unchanged throughout the medium term as we track the larger weather events over WA and this then filtering moisture throughout the country from northwest to southeast ahead of cold fronts. There will also be moisture spreading through the Coral Sea and into northern Australia via the easterly wind regime! That moisture over northern areas of the nation needs to be watched as we will see that turning back towards the country via being drawn south and southeast in upper northwest winds leading to rainfall chances coming up for QLD and the NT.

That moisture over northern Australia will spread south and southeast into the NT and QLD with the dry season weather starting to shift as we have moisture coming up. Further heavy moisture continuing over southern Australia, the weather here likely leading to higher rainfall than normal over eastern and southeast Australia. Another wave of frontal weather may drag in moisture from the Central Indian Ocean into the SWLD.

Temperature Anomalies

Temperatures are forecast to remain well above normal for many areas this weekend and into next week as a long fetch northwest to westerly flow distributes the warmth throughout much of inland Australia. Another wave of frontal weather moving into SWLD of WA leading to cooler than normal weather, actually quite cold over the coastal areas under persistent westerly winds. Seasonal weather over the east coastal areas of the nation. Humidity values may start to rise over northern Australia.

The heat values remain higher than normal over the north of the nation with elevated SSTs coming into play and with moisture spreading throughout the north of the nation, this could lead to a marked increase in humidity values ending the dry season for a period. That warmth may begin to clash with the colder and drier weather surging northwards over south of the country behind strong cold fronts and low pressure. So more dynamic weather is possible with severe weather chances also coming up as the red and blue shading begins to get closer!

Rainfall Anomalies

The moisture values remaining very high throughout the interior will eventually lead to cloud increasing initially, with rainfall likely to increase in coverage over the nation's central and eastern areas. The rainfall over the southeast areas on and west of the divide could be well above normal with low pressure stacking up in the westerly wind regime and topography enhancing rainfall. Further strong cold fronts and low pressure peaking over the SWLD leading to more widespread falls and with the SSTs continuing to run above normal offshore the west and southwest of the Ag Areas here, the rainfall could continue at above average values (as seen over the weekend 75mm observed in some areas).

Rainfall over the central and eastern inland of the nation is tending above average with a northern movement of the westerly wind belt flicking some low-pressure systems through southern parts of WA through SA and VIC and that may continue through this period, however given we are likely to have moisture running over the NT and into QLD, this could be lifted into widespread rainfall with low pressure forecast to be over QLD, NSW and VIC. Further moisture may activate into cloud bands offshore WA and this coming through with the next wave of rain and thunderstorms moving in towards mid month.

More coming up in the days ahead and check out your state-based forecasts daily and the Facebook page (members only) for weather bites throughout the day and night. I do sleep but I am trying to give you plenty of avenues to access information.