A LOOK AT THE SEVERE WEATHER RISKS FOR QLD AND NSW THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

The weather is certainly active and dynamic with a complex set up leading to some very interesting outcomes over QLD and NSW.


Not only that, we are seeing an early signal of what to expect nationally as we move into Spring 2022 with the moisture streaming not just out of the Indian Ocean but coming out of the Arafura Sea and Timor Sea as well.


In the short term, we have got a broad risk of severe weather, including the risk of flash flooding and riverine flooding over interior parts of QLD and along the QLD coast and pockets of the NSW coast as well.


The complexity of the pattern means pinning down where the severe weather is more likely than over other areas is very much the question so pay attention to the forecasts daily and the forecast confidence will improve.


SEVERE WEATHER RISK QUEENSLAND

The severe weather issues are expected to evolve from Friday with a trough lined up from Boulia through Tambo to Brisbane, areas along and to the north of this trough expected to see heavy rainfall with flash flooding the biggest concern. Depending on rainfall quantities, the rainfall could be supportive for riverine flooding as well. Along the coast the risk develops from the weekend as the trough stands up and moves through, heaviest impacts are likely around Mackay to Hervey Bay at this time but could creep down into the SE Inland. Flash flooding more of concern here with rainfall rates of 100mm/hr likely to feature along the trough. The weather clears the inland over the weekend and the coastal areas from Monday.

SEVERE WEATHER RISK NSW

The bulk of the severe weather risk is still expected along the coast with the onshore winds feeding an upper low that is forecast to sit over Central areas of the state. Convergent rainfall with a trough along coast as well, may lead to heavy showers and thunderstorms from about Narooma northwards to Newcastle on Friday and then more broadly up and down the coast from the weekend before conditions clear early next week as the system moves eastwards. Some areas along the coast could see up to 250mm from the event but pinning down where that is, it is like playing pin the tail on the donkey. Stay tuned.

More coming up in the state-based forecasts this evening.