LATEST UPDATE ON THE INLAND RAINFALL EVENT FOR NSW AND QLD

A few little wiggles in the rainfall overnight with the models a little divergent in rainfall coverage, but have now agreed that the best of the rainfall will fall over the northern inland of NSW.


Some modelling such as GFS brings more widespread falls with heavier totals further south into Central NSW later Thursday and Friday before clearing southeast.


The Euro still sticking to it's guns and passing the rainfall through southern inland QLD, through northeastern inland parts of NSW and clearing the trough and low eastwards rather than southeastwards.


Lets start with NSW first and then QLD after that.


Rainfall for the coming 10 days - Valid Wednesday 7th of July 2021.

Rainfall heaviest over the northwest slopes and plains, through the Moree Plains and Pilliga down towards the New England, mainly west of the divide with moderate falls as far south and west as Dubbo to Coonamble. The rain leaves later Friday with showers on the coast north of Newcastle to about Coolangatta. Then next week the rainfall impacts the inland west of the divide and more frequent and heavier in the southern inland over the Riverina, Southwest Slopes and as far north as the Central Tablelands.

Rainfall for the next 4 days - Just looking at this rain event, there is more rainfall potential next week on some modelling for this region.

GFS 12z run - Rainfall Spread for the coming 10 days - Valid Wednesday 7th of July 2021.

The rainfall is much more extensive through the northern inland of NSW with a trough passing through from QLD. This rainfall could be heavy as the rain band runs up the face of the Great Dividing Range. And falls will be enhanced by some thunderstorms. The rainfall may be moderate along the east coast with a southeast to southerly flow as the low deepens offshore later Friday, again not convinced of this but I have lifted rainfall totals a little higher this morning for the coast north of Newcastle. You can see the next rainfall event next week which I am siding with in the forecasts.

Euro 12z run - Rainfall Spread for the coming 10 days - Valid Wednesday 7th of July 2021.

The rainfall similar in timing over southern inland QLD and northern inland parts of NSW with moderate falls. The rainfall is not as widespread for central areas but there could be falls of 10-15mm in the northern parts of that district. The rainfall sweeps out to sea with less falls for the east coast. Then a few fronts next week to come through, this model not picking the moisture content available in the westerly wind belt via the Indian Ocean so it is running drier than GFS for next week, but I think that will change.

Let's have a look at QLD now.


Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 7th of July 2021.

After the rainfall event along the NSW border I think the inland stays dry until later next week at the earliest with the next wave of fronts over the southeast. Showers increasing along the FNQ coast with onshore winds next week and dry through the outback. Seasonal weather.


Euro 12z run - Rainfall Spread for the coming 10 days - Valid Wednesday 7th of July 2021.

Rainfall totals are a little more tricky to forecast in QLD with the initiation of rainfall split on the models this morning, some areas are suggesting it breaks out further west through QLD, some further towards central QLD and some initiate it closer to the NSW border. But there will likely be better falls the closer you are to the NSW border, which I think is the right forecast to go with and I am sticking with that. Euro shows that well. Then a dry week to follow after this rainfall event.

GFS 12z run - Rainfall Spread for the coming 10 days - Valid Wednesday 7th of July 2021.

Rainfall spreading through the southern inland, not as widespread away from the NSW border. This rainfall will be welcome for many over the southern inland. Then GFS wants to bring in a cloud band through inland areas with light to moderate falls are expected to skirt very close to the QLD border later next week, but this is conditional. Showers may be heavy at times over the FNQ coast next week with northeast to easterly winds.

More updates to come this afternoon with better data coming in on the modelling for this system.








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