LATEST UPDATE ON THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING SA AND VIC.

Strong looking cold front this morning on the satellite loop, is now starting to show signs of weakening a little this afternoon as it encounters the blocking pattern over the Tasman Sea, forcing the system to slow down and also adopt a more east southeasterly track.


The blocking pattern thanks to a large high over NZ which is quite possibly the strongest high of the season so far this winter (glad it is parked there!).


Satellite Imagery - Valid 2pm EST

The front looked so good this morning with a nice line of thunderstorms along the leading edge, that has started to weaken as the system encounters more unfavourable conditions with a blocking pattern over the east. Sadly if the system was a little quicker and the block was not in place, it may have captured that moisture over NSW and produced more widespread rainfall. Alas not this time around. However the trailing cold air looks good and in tact so another belt of rain may form in this area over the coming 12-24 hours and provide more moderate falls for coastal SA and southwest VIC.

The quick snap shows the progression of weather in relation to where you are along the front. The system will begin to slow down, the lead front likely to fall southeast and the second front the feature to bring in the rainfall and cold wintry weather into the southeast of SA, maybe light rainfall for Ag areas and cold and showery weather for the coastal areas of VIC.


There is the chance of some light snowfalls over the Grampians with this feature.


Cold front moving east Thursday, but grinding to a snails pace this evening.

Rainfall again is looking better the closer you are to the coast so that is the rule to follow, not uncommon for this part of the world. But it will be cold throughout.


Latest GFS 00z run - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021.

Front does have moderate rainfall lingering about coastal areas and now spreads that rainfall a little further east through the Western District of Victoria with light falls making it into the Mallee, Wimmera and Ag areas of SA.

Farmers and Graziers risk forecasts will be issued this evening for this event, so make preparations if you have stock, for a prolonged period of high wind chill, showery weather and large drop in temperatures today. The day time values are well above average.


More details to come closer to 6pm this evening.


Need more weather forecasting for your part of the world? Let me know, an addition of a tailored forecast to your baseline subscription can help answer more of your questions. email karllijnders@weathermatters.org

75 views0 comments