LATEST RAIN REVIEW - ALL MODELS

Latest details on the rainfall projection from the data this evening.


This is the information I posted this morning, and now you can review that against the data below.




ICON - Rainfall next 5 days.

Not much away from coastal areas of the south with a change passing through during the next 2 days. Some moderate falls over western TAS and southern VIC possible. Then the showery weather moves to the east coast, with onshore southeast to easterly winds developing as a high moves in over the southeast. There may be a weak trough triggering high based showers and storms over eastern WA moving into western SA mid next week. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the northern tropics with showers for FNQ.

Euro - Rainfall next 10 days

Rainfall limited to the coastal areas of southern and eastern Australia during the coming week. The system over the weekend delivers light falls for southern SA but moderate falls for southeast VIC and western TAS. Showers developing for the east coast next week with onshore winds. The weather drier over inland areas for the next week. Mid next week a strong cold front passing through WA moves towards SA bringing showers and storms, heaviest over in SWLD of WA. Showers and isolated thunderstorms for the northern tropics.

GFS - Rainfall for the next 10 days

Updated from this evening's run, similar though with showery weather over the southeast his weekend with light falls for the most areas in a colder southwest shift. Rainfall coming up for the east coast of NSW in onshore southeast winds next week, that region could use some rainfall. Moisture streaming through the western interior looks set to link up with a cold front and trough to bring showers and storms to SA later in the period and moderate rainfall expected with a front mid next week, helping to kick start the potential rainfall further east. The tropics look unsettled with deeper moisture and colder upper levels.

KMA - Rainfall next 10 days

Had widespread areas of rain, but light falls increasing over the nation with no major trigger to lift it into organised areas of rainfall. The trend is for drier weather for the next week for inland areas before rainfall chances increase. Otherwise good agreement in rainfall for coastal areas until this time next week.

UKMET - Rainfall for the next 7 days.

Showers across the weekend over the southeast, light falls generally. Showery weather developing for the east coast with numbers also coming up. An upper trough over north QLD could see rainfall increase in coverage spreading into the eastern Top End. A new front approaching WA will bring the next batch of rain mid next week. That will also invigorate a trough moving into SA with showers mid next week if this is right.

ACCESS - Rainfall next 10 days

Probably the most aggressive on the inland rainfall idea but not far from reality if you piece together all the moisture that will be available next week and then being lifted by troughs and a long wave passing through southern Australia, keep this in the back of your minds over coming days, this is possibly how models may look, now that we are seeing a seasonal shift.

CMC - Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall mainly coastal over the southeast this weekend, not much getting inland as the flow is southerly and dry by Monday. The east coast not seeing that low pressure developing, no surprises there, with onshore winds and showers building but lighter falls than other models. Then showers increasing over SA with a moisture in feed from the Indian Ocean which is turning more active in the latter part of this month on global modelling. We will see.

More details coming up tomorrow from 7am.

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