A strong cold front looks good on satellite this morning rolling through the Great Australian Bight and is expected to stand up and move further north and east today, increasing the wind profile over southeastern and eastern Australia. Cloud will also begin to increase with rainfall expected from Friday morning through coastal areas before spreading inland.

Satellite Imagery - Thursday 1st of July 2021

Cold front with deep cold airmass rising through the Bight. Note the trough over eastern inland areas of Australia will block the forward/eastward motion of the front during today so this system will start to slow down and become weaker as it approaches the coastal areas tomorrow, still rainfall is looking fair for the region.

Euro 12z Synoptic Pattern and 6hrly Rainfall - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021.

The forward eastward speed of the system is slowed by the blocking pattern over the east with the upper high over NZ forcing anything coming out of SA into the east to slow down and collapse. This will mean that the system coming through tomorrow will bring a slow moving band of rainfall for southeast SA and gradually move into southwest and western inland areas of VIC. Showery periods to follow over the weekend will gradually contract through to Central VIC and TAS before clearing Sunday afternoon.

Euro 12z Rainfall spread next 7 days - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021.

Note that band of rain looks good before it hits the coast and then hits a brick wall, thanks to the blocking pattern. There is also more rainfall for southern inland areas later next week with the next lot of cold fronts.

So putting that all together for rainfall over the southern and southeastern areas.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021.

Rainfall more extensive about coastal SA and then there will be more rainfall later in the outlook period, which I will more about that this afternoon with a moisture and two week review.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021.

Showers increasing over central Victoria later Friday into Saturday though depending on the low movement I may remove the 25-40mm range for eastern parts of Melbourne into the Yarra Ranges. More rainfall next week.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021.

Light falls expected for the Ag areas, the better falls expected over the dairy country to the southeast and upper southeastern coastal areas with the lead front. The trailing cold air may bring some wintry showers with coastal falls for the most part. More rainfall expected next week with the next lot of frontal weather, lifting numbers for the YP and the Ag areas with better chance of rainfall with that lot.

More details coming this afternoon on this system as we will have better clarity on who gets what with the upper balloon network data to feed in from about midday onwards.

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