LATEST ON THE QLD AND NSW RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A quick update on the weather unfolding through QLD this afternoon.


Love using the satellite imagery as you can see the basics of weather before your eyes. A trough is lingering through the eastern inland of NSW and QLD bringing thick cloud and areas.


Satellite Imagery - Valid Friday 2nd of July 2021.

Trough is now coming into a deeper moisture layer this afternoon. Thunderstorms are firing offshore NSW and that process is expected to take place over land through QLD today and more likely tomorrow. The limiting factor on thunderstorm development is linked to the thickness of the cloud cover which acts a stablising force at the surface. But elevated thunderstorms may form this afternoon or tonight through the region. More on that here.


Rain has generally been light and patchy inland as the trough reorganises but the coverage of rainfall is expected to ramp up dramatically in the coming 12-24hrs.


Radar as at 1pm EST - Patchy rainfall with mainly light falls under thick cloud cover. Though some of the rainfall may increase in intensity this afternoon and tonight before a wet day tomorrow.

Radar as at 1pm EST - Patchy rainfall with mainly light falls under thick cloud cover. Though some of the rainfall may increase in intensity this afternoon with this zone expected to see the bulk of the heavy rainfall Saturday with a low end flash flood risk.

Radar as at 1pm EST - Scattered showers continuing in an unstable and humid airmass, rain increasing later today and on Saturday morning before clearing north and east. Storms are possible today and tomorrow morning.

The analysis this afternoon is for the trough to be slow moving as it progresses to the east. But the speed is being determined by the slow moving high pressure system offshore which is holding up this system and forcing others to the southeast.


Quick snapshot for the coming 24-48hrs over the region. Once the dry line moves through with the trough, the rainfall chances end.


Latest rainfall guide from the Euro model shows where that trough is anchored at the moment and the slow progression to the east.


Euro 18z run - Rainfall for the next 3 days - Valid Friday 2nd of July 2021.

Some heavy falls of 100-150mm are being progged in a narrow band along the trough so again pinning down which towns get the direct hit, very challenging in advance.



More details to come this evening, and an update on the storm risk with the flash flooding risk for parts of the east coast.

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