I wrote about this late last night tracking model run to model run and here is the comparison between last nights run of GFS and this morning's run of GFS and how the impact of low pressure determines who gets what.

This is last night's rainfall forecast according to GFS in mm. Note the very tight rainfall gradient over northeast VIC. You only have to shift that 20km in the next run and your forecast changes from flash flooding to a moderate rain!

Numbers over NE NSW are picking up more so and the current official forecasts do not represent the risk of further flooding up there, so if you are living in this region, expect more than what is being forecast in your region.

The low pressure now sitting further north this morning has moved the heavy rainfall further north. But this will change and shows you the variability from run to run, so be weather aware and keep up to date with severe thunderstorm and weather warnings today.

More coming up throughout the day.