LATEST MODEL DATA AND RAINFALL GUIDE - A LOT OF RAINFALL COMING IN THE SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM.

Lets get straight into it.


The mechanics can be seen before your eyes on the satellite.

FLOOD RISKS


NEW SOUTH WALES AND VICTORIA

Flooding for the next 7 days remains extensive and once the rain ceases the flooding will continue right through to early 2022.

QUEENSLAND

Flooding to continue for the coming 7 days over inland areas with the flooding also expected to continue through to early 2022.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

Flooding is expected to ease much more readily in South Australia and should be resolved by the end of the weekend but keep an eye on the Murray River levels through Victoria for downstream flooding.

The rainfall is excessive in the short term as we know but the medium term offers repeat weather potential.


SHORT TERM

We know where the rain will be over the coming 3-5 days and there is every chance that the rain will persist for some locations in NSW and QLD longer than other districts and this focus is shifting around from run to run, this may also exacerbate the flooding potential as we move through to the weekend and next week. A good agreement in the moisture hanging back over the eastern inland and then leading to more rain and thunderstorms for QLD and NSW and the coastal areas could also see rainfall increasing as winds veer into the northeast. Deep moisture will thin out over the continent with limited moisture getting into SA and dry air and no rainfall for WA. The tropics are looking seasonal.


UKMET - Rainfall Next 7 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

No real change from last night but has a decent clean out as mentioned for WA and through western SA, once we lose the rain over SA, most of the state should be dry through next week. The moisture hangs up over the east and that will continue the rain and storms for quite a number of days.

MEDIUM TERM

Medium term has another major rainfall event sweeping the nation on some models and some models don't really clear the east and north at all through the first 10 days of December which is of great concern for many in the east. The moisture does look to deepen and rainfall chances are likely to increase once again for areas that will be dry through the next week. The 3rd of December onwards looks humid and unsettled for most states and that could persist for 3-4 days as well. The tropics likely to see an uptick in the showers and thunderstorms as well as the easterly waves continue to float through.


ICON - Rainfall Next 8 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

A very dry look for the west with the wet weather over the east persisting with significant rainfall to continue into next week for NSW and QLD.

CMC - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE.

As per the above a nice clean out of moisture for WA into SA but the moisture hangs on through the east and north with widespread rainfall this weekend and showery next week.

EURO - Rainfall Next 10 Days

No data this evening...of all times!


ACCESS - Rainfall Next 10 Days

ACCESS like GFS has a repeat system from this time next week for the southeast and east, though once SA loses the rainfall tonight and tomorrow, should remain dry through the end of next week like WA. The east wet and humid with persistent rainfall with the large wave over the coming 2 days and another wave due in this time next week with showers and storms in between to keep things wet.

KMA - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

The KMA, like GFS and ACCESS have the second feature next week which brings more heavy rainfall and thunderstorms for the eastern states and might bring rainfall into the eastern portions of SA and VIC as well.

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

The weather over the nation gradually turns more humid and unsettled for all. The moisture in the east and north eventually spreads south and west throughout and this lifts rainfall chances, temperatures and humidity values for all states.

ENSEMBLE DATA

The data sets drench the east and the fact they are not changing much while rain is falling in the east is of concern meaning that another 50-100mm widespread can be expected on top of what is falling out of this system to take us through to December 10. That will keep the flood risks elevated and do a lot of damage/destruction to crops.


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

The ensemble data not as keen on the rainfall and moisture spreading throughout the nation but keeps that wet weather going over the east with significant rainfall beyond this event.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members)

Good agreement from the CMC but more liberal with the moisture spreading throughout the nation during this period until the 10th of December.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members)

No data this evening.


LONG TERM - Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE.

Very wet through to mid January.

Finally I have heard a few press conferences today from the BoM suggesting that the La Nina is expected to be weak and not last as long. Well that is if you use their model.


It is not entirely true and as I mentioned over the past few weeks, the BoM are the last to declare a La Nina internationally. They have come to the party and the coverage in the media has been atrocious.


What you need to know is that it is still strengthening and there is decent chance that it could persist into Autumn next year and be stronger than last year. These elements are on the table and the weather we are seeing presently is concerning if that is their synopsis of the event to come.


Certainly something to watch.


ENSO Outlook from the highly reputable international IRI.

The BoM model sits above the mean average lines (red, blue and green line)

More tomorrow from 7am EDT.

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