LATEST DETAILS ON THE WINTRY WEATHER ARRIVING NEXT WEEK FOR SA AND VIC.

Looking good this morning on the model runs with an increase in precipitation for the southern parts of the nation, including some locations that have been missing out on rainfall this year. Fingers crossed your time is COMING this round!


Lets have a look at the latest details.


12z GFS - Moisture/PW Values for the next 16 days - Valid Thursday 8th of July 2021.

Upper level winds next week with GFS are a little more northwesterly which brings in more moisture into the westerly feed - last night you would of noted in my late night update that the winds were more west southwesterly in the upper levels, so this is why we are seeing more rainfall with the system in about 6 days time. This will continue to evolve. The short to medium term shows more moisture right through to the end of the month, so the rainfall chances will remain average to above average for the common 3 to 4 weeks off this guidance. But will focus on the shorter term 7-10 days forecast window.

12z Euro - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 8th of July 2021.

Moisture is creeping up in the outlook period, and the models are responding, better rainfall for the southern portions of SA including the southeast which you can see below with VIC. The rainfall may be moderate to heavy at times for areas exposed to a westerly wind regime, which would mean some of that would finally filter into the eastern inland, around the Riverlands, Murraylands and Mallee. This looks reasonable given the current guidance. Also keep an eye on the battle ground that is set up over the outback between the cold air to the south and the warm air to the north, rainfall may increase along this boundary.

12z GFS - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 8th of July 2021.

Very similar to Euro, with the rainfall coverage more valuable for the Riverlands, Murraylands and the Mallee, this is the wettest it has looked in many weeks, so fingers crossed it verifies from early next week. Fronts will increase as the long wave trough moves into the Bight and the frontal weather peaks over the region. This will continue right through to next weekend. As pointed out, the models are analysing weather in this region over a week away and therefore low confidence should be applied, but the SIGNAL is for wintry weather following the initial frontal weather coming through Tuesday onwards.

12z GFS - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 8th of July 2021.

A view for the southeast where conditions will be wettest through southeast SA and through VIC, particularly over southern and mountain areas with some pockets of heavier falls along the southwest coast of VIC, the southeast coast of SA and through Alpine areas.

12z Euro - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 8th of July 2021.

Rainfall looks best for those areas exposed to the westerly wind regime which increases from Tuesday onwards. Some of the frontal weather could be more productive into Thursday and then Saturday as the flow tends southwesterly but that is in the medium term and carries low confidence so again treat it as a SIGNAL.

Rainfall for the coming 10 days - Valid Thursday 8th of July 2021

Rainfall increasing in the forecast period, and this is with three frontal waves, and the last two are looking the most productive. Keep watch on the system though looks cut off from Sunday afternoon over southeast SA and into western VIC, there could be some moderate falls from slow moving showers or areas of rainfall. That system is not being modelled well, so there will be changes with that feature to, especially if you are living between Bordertwon and Hamilton.

Rainfall for the coming 10 days - Valid Thursday 8th of July 2021

Rainfall increases from early next week for the region, though spotty patchy rainfall today and tomorrow over the YP will possibly bring 1mm. Then showers about on Sunday with the more widespread falls expected over the southeast districts, though it could surprise with the system looking to cut off into an upper cold pool. Then the fronts arrive with more punch Tuesday, Thursday and possibly Saturday. Some of those fronts will have moderate falls that will extend inland to all regions. And will topography block some of the rainfall for inland areas? Will keep watch.

Rainfall for the coming 10 days - Valid Thursday 8th of July 2021

A closer look at Melbourne and the surrounding region and the heavier falls may occur around the Yarra Ranges exposed to the westerly wind profile and over Spa Country between Mount Macedon, involving Woodend, Trentham and Daylesford with the rainfall stacking up along these areas in the unstable flow. Showers will increase from Tuesday generally with heavier falls later in the week. A few showers are possible on Sunday or Monday with a weak trough.

Updates on this during the afternoon.

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