LA NINA - WILL SHE ACTUALLY LEAVE??

This is the debate amongst various agencies on how to handle the La Nina through the remainder over the phase, whether to call it cool neutral and inactive, as it does appear that the La Nina is forecast a higher chance of developing once again, as we track into Spring and Summer 2022/23 which would not be unprecedented, but rare. It has happened before but the last time is a few decades ago.


So lets see where things are headed for the remainder of this La Nina phase and where the climate models are taking us.


I will preface the below information as that of low confidence, it only increases from around July onwards and anyone that is forecasting specifics this far out is very brave as there is no data to support any claim for El Nino, Neutral or La Nina phase just yet. We talk about leaning certain ways supported by data but calling phases this far out is not possible.


FORECAST

ENSO OUTLOOK - Next 9 months

The latest data sets support a slow waning of the La Nina that is present and a return to neutral conditions. The overall trend is for the ENSO phase to turn cool neutral through the winter with minimal impacts forecast for the period into early Spring. But some of the models diverge as we head into Spring with a few more now indicating La Nina will redevelop in the Spring into Summer 2022/23 where other modelling supports the cool neutral phase to continue. For now, the preliminary forecast is for cool neutral here and this will continue to refine as we go through the coming 3 months. The longer the La Nina lingers, the more likely we will see another develop in the coming Spring and Summer. This year so far is very much following last year's trends.

I will have a broader climate drivers update during next week after Easter, but wanted to issue the latest forecast information that was spat out this morning here for you to review.

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