KEEPING AN EYE ON TROPICAL MISCHIEF OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN NEXT WEEK.

The tropical low later next week into the following weekend, may introduce heavy early season rainfall over northwest Australia, but also spread a deep moisture profile right across the nation as we head into the end of November, setting the stage for above average rainfall yet again.


GFS 12Z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next Weekend into the following week.

Note the tropical waves offshore wrapping into early season lows. These are unlikely to be cyclones, but the impact of spreading heavy rainfall and moisture across the nation will be similar IF this verifies. Something to watch for those over the northern, central and eastern parts of the nation as that moisture, if it makes it into the nation and meets a trough in the south or east, you think it rained heavy this past week....I can tell you that it will make it look like a drizzle compared to that combination coming together so I will be paying attention to this threat.

The Indian Ocean Dipole may be resolving from the negative phase, but it is still influencing the early onset rainfall, higher humidity values as forecast here for months in advance, as we go into December. The monsoon is also likely to appear earlier this year too over northern parts of the nation so this is a taster of what is to come for the next 4-6 months.

The moisture from the west under this guidance from KMA is found in the east and lifts it into heavy rainfall, an east coast trough will assist in causing the rainfall to become more widespread to end the month.

The GFS shows that connection of moisture from northwest to southeast of the nation quite well, but doesn't quite render that information for rainfall to become heavier and widespread over in the east...yet.

The CMC also has a deep tropical low off the coast but only runs through 10 days. It is slower with the feature. But this is a sign of the times, the weather after this last cold snap, is turning summer like with the tropics to descend further south through the outlook.

I will have more on this throughout the week coming, but a heads up for those over northern, central and eastern parts of the nation.

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