Well as promised I wanted to wait for the evening data sets to come through and so far there is increasing signals we may be looking at potentially some further severe weather for the east coast and perhaps even the eastern third of NSW, extending into southeast QLD and far east VIC mid to late week.
I will have more on in tomorrow but I wanted to bring you the updated risk chart and then we will talk rainfall tomorrow, especially tomorrow night once we get the severe weather off the board in the short term.
Severe Weather Risk - Thursday through Saturday
Upper level trough may interact with a southeast to northeasterly flow to bring rain and thunderstorms to the east of the nation. Some of the areas of rainfall could be heavy and carry the risk of further flooding potential for areas hit hard. Once we get this current severe weather off the board, I can be more specific about timing, intensity and then the risk areas more generally. But a heads up!!!
Euro Rainfall - Next 10 Days
Euro has been by far the most aggressive on this idea since yesterday and is expanding the rainfall further inland with the upper trough. That said there is some heavy rainfall in the short term which is contaminating the coverage of rainfall in the latter part of the period so the totals will be low confidence for now and drawing in a rainfall forecast is not of high skill at this time.
GFS Rainfall - Next 10 Days
The latest GFS does not recognise the even as per the Euro above, instead floats the upper trough through without anything more than an increase in showers for parts of the east coast of NSW and into southeast QLD. The inland remains dry. But this forecast too is of low confidence with the GFS of late playing catch up.
CMC Rainfall - Next 10 Days
Allowing me to expand the forecast risk from this morning has been the latest CMC. It also sees the upper trough and deepens in over northern NSW with an increase in showers and thunderstorms through the forecast period, but a little more delayed than the Euro. That supports my low confidence forecast for now in terms of placement, timing and intensity but be sure to check back tomorrow morning for more.
More coming up tomorrow morning in the National Weather Wrap and a much better idea on what is happening in your evening weather information and video tomorrow night.