IT IS GROUNDHOG DAY WEATHER WISE IN THE WEST.

The showery weather keeps on keeping on with an unstable westerly wind regime dragging in widespread showers and cold conditions today. Another front is expected to move through and shift the winds colder southwesterly later today into Thursday.


Satellite Imagery

Showery weather streaming in over the west coast continues today. A moisture plume continues to stream in as well, via the jet stream but the lack of support with an upper ridge close by suppressing output from that. Showers will increase today with the chance of hail and thunder about coastal areas of the southwest later today.

Euro 12z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall distribution - Valid Wednesday 14th of July 2021.

A fast flow pattern that has brought 2 weeks of rainfall and strong winds over the region is moving east finally, leading to conditions easing after the last front moves through later today. A few showers continues for Thursday, then high pressure comes in and clears conditions for much of the west and southwest coasts from Friday. The weekend looks gorgeous with fine and mild weather, but here comes the rainfall again, another burst of heavy rainfall and strong winds thanks to a deep layer of moisture being lifted by low pressure. Follow up falls following that system from about Tuesday possible, meaning the end of this month could be quite damp.

GFS 12z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall distribution - Valid Wednesday 14th of July 2021.

However if GFS is right, and I not thinking it is, the weather would be a lot drier for the outlook from next week, yes there would further showery weather from this time next week, but the event is not as dynamic and then the weather dries out as the east turns wet. But I am siding with the Euro solution.

Euro 12z - Precipitable Water Values- Valid Wednesday 14th of July 2021.

The PW values remain elevated offshore over the Indian Ocean for the next 10-14 days are expected to bring further rainfall back to the west of the nation. This moisture lifted by low pressure and then propelled inland with rainfall chances increasing over wide areas.

Euro 12z - Rainfall for the coming 10 days - Valid Wednesday 14th of July 2021.

Rainfall continues for another day or so then it lifts out with a fine weekend. Next week the models diverge a little, but the Euro seems the more logical and I will side with that solution with a high chance of rainfall returning next week with further rainfall to follow that lead system in the day 8-10 window with more deep moisture coming in. That has been the solution on the table for the past 5 days now.

Rainfall for the coming 10 days - Valid Wednesday 14th of July 2021.

Rainfall eases from Thursday for the region with the state largely dry from Friday into the weekend with light winds and sunny skies. Then cloud returns from Monday with rain developing along the west coast from Tuesday at this stage and rainfall persisting for the remainder of the week with heavy falls possible about the southwest. These falls may extend inland, and that is also dependent upon the trajectory of the low pressure system. We will have a better look and handle on that by the weekend with the eastern cold outbreak resolving.

More weather details to come on the rainfall developing during next week in the 2 week forecast so look out for that and another update on this later today.

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