The interest shifts from the ENSO to the Indian Ocean Dipole and if this driver does tend negative, I am sure you will be hearing a lot about it in the media as they get excited about using new words ;)
The overall trend is for a negative phase to start emerging through the Winter but not have a major impact until August, so southern and eastern inland Australia, I do caution the excitement of rainfall increasing from May or June, this won't be felt until the second half of Winter at the earliest.
For now, this is the forecast data for the Indian Ocean Dipole, fresh off the forecast panels and I just wanted to share this with you with a broader Climate Outlook due out after Easter next week when everyone is back on deck.
Indian Ocean Dipole Forecast - Next 9 Months
We are seeing the downward trend in the Indian Ocean towards that negative phase into Winter 2022. The waters are already fairly warm across large chunks of the Indian Ocean Basin and this will lead to a general increase of moisture and rainfall across the nation from northwest to southeast from July onwards. Like the ENSO, there is a lag from the event developing, peaking and waning to the response felt via the atmosphere. So I do expect a wetter back half of the year as a result. And data supports that. The forecast confidence on the IOD is now moderate and will improve through May and into June. I do think the strength of the negative phase will soften a little bit as we get better data sets into the next 6 weeks.
More details can be found at the top of the blog page in the updated May and June outlooks as a peek into early Spring.
More on this coming up next week when we get better data and broader analysis information coming through from agencies with the mid month review.