IF YOU ARE LIVING IN WA YOU KNOW THE DRILL - BUT IF YOU LIVE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST - PAY ATTENTION.

Because the weather out here will likely be replicated from mid next week as the long wave moves from southwest of the nation and across the the central and southeastern parts of the nation.


That will take a lot of the wintry weather from WA and share it with SA and through southern NSW, VIC and TAS. But until then, the wettest and most wintry weather will remain over WA this week.


So all the elements that are being forecast here, will be likely to occur over in the southeast and east during later next week.


Rainfall for the coming 10 days has been largely unchanged from the models tonight, but I will share the latest with you below.


Euro Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Monday 5th of July 2021.

Rainfall continues to stack up with 4-5 frontal passages during the next 10 days with more fronts beyond this period so it is more of the same for the coming days.

GFS Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Monday 5th of July 2021.

Good agreement in modelling between the major two models with significant frontal weather rainfall to continue with heavy coastal falls and well below average temperatures this week for many in the SWLD.

The pressure pattern is largely unchanged as well for this part of Australia with the frontal barrage continues in the short and medium term with rainfall and low air pressure to continue right through until mid month. This will keep rainfall chances elevated and colder weather going right through to the fourth week of the month



GFS 00z run - Surface pressure pattern and rainfall for the next 16 days - Valid Monday 5th of July 2021.

There is no let up in the wet weather for the coming 10-20 days over the region which is in line with the wettest time of the year for this region. Some flooding is possible in parts of the southwest, especially if 200mm does verify for some during this time.

Tomorrow it could be quite an active day of weather with the next frontal passage.


Thunderstorm Forecast for Tuesday - Valid Monday 5th of July 2021.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop through the southwest later tomorrow into the evening, with gusty winds, small hail and brief heavy rainfall. These storms will be fast moving so damaging winds are the main threat. The storms will persist overnight into Wednesday in a cold airmass.

A 90% chance of thunderstorms within 25km of a given point within the pink shading, the risk tapers down 10% per colour down the wheel.

Hail Risk Forecast for Tuesday - Valid Monday 5th of July 2021.

Hail will accompany many of the showers and storms that pass through the region on Tuesday, but the higher chance will be south of Perth where many locations could see periodic hail storms moving through later in the day, with squalls and local thunder.

Low - 5-20%, Moderate - 21-40%, High - 41-60% chance of small hail observed within 25km of a given point.

Damaging Winds Risk Forecast for the remainder of Monday 5th of July 2021.

Damaging winds of up to 100kmh possible with the passage of thunderstorms that develop with a cold front passing through then a cold pool overnight and during the evening and into Wednesday.

Low - 5-20%, Moderate - 21-40%, High - 41-60% chance of damaging wind gusts observed within 25km of a given point.

Farmers and Graziers Forecast for Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

Weather conditions for parts of the southwest will put stock under stress with high wind chill, showery weather with periods of wintry bursts on Tuesday. This is likely to continue until Thursday


So the active weather continues and the weather will persist for a number of days before a brief lull on Thursday before more active weather coming through later Friday.



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