HOW THE MOISTURE WILL PLAY OUT THROUGH WA OVER COMING DAYS.

Significant cloud and rainfall is expected to sweep through the nation, starting with WA from tomorrow with a strong cold front on the approach. It is anticipated to link up with extensive moisture which we have been seeing over the last 5 days drifting through the jet stream allowing widespread cloud to develop.


Moisture working its way over northern Australia during the last 24 hours in association with a deeper of layer sitting offshore the northwest back towards Indonesia. Note that this plume of moisture will be out of phase with an approaching cold front over southwest of WA. The cloud band will rapidly develop later Sunday as a deepening low approaches.

The precipitable water values will be playing a large part in the regions weather over the course of the next 3-4 days with a cold dry airmass clashing with that southeast surge of moisture out of the Indian Ocean. Many areas will record measurable rainfall, probably the most widespread rainfall event through winter in this part of the world for many years.


And looking into the medium term, there could be more rainfall to come as the precipitable water values look to stick around over the northern and western parts of the nation, sitting and waiting to be utilised with fast moving weather systems moving over the southern ocean.


Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 weeks - GFS 18z run - Valid Saturday 19th of June 2021.

The green and blue shadings over the north of the nation denote precipitable water values of 1-2 inches (25-50mm). The higher the precipitable water values, the more productive the rainfall event.

So putting that all together the rainfall for the coming 10 days is looking very promising for the region with the lead system and then with a follow up system at about day 8-10, which could bring another 20-50mm of rainfall to the SWLD.


This is the wettest time of year for the SWLD so it should be frequently wet.


Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday 18th of June 2021

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday 18th of June 2021

The prognosis for damaging winds over southern Australia is running high and will encompass most of the coast this week.


Damaging Winds Risk Forecast - Valid Saturday 19th of June 2021

Low = 5-20%, Moderate = 20-40%, High 40-60%, Very High 60-80%, Extreme = 80-95%

of recording damaging winds within 20km of a given location.

And finally this weather will place stress of stock with the presence of strong and gusty cold conditions, with the chance of the high wind chill coupled with rainfall developing over a large area. This region has seen fairly mild weather of recent weeks, despite chilly nights.


High winds reaching moderate gale strength over coastal areas coupled with well below average temperatures will be harsh especially on Monday and Tuesday over the southwest before it contracts east to the central and eastern states.


Stock Risk Forecast - Valid for Monday through Wednesday - Saturday 19th of June 2021.

Plenty of weather to get through over the course of the next few days with a few severe elements to watch, but the moisture will be the big part, spreading the biggest cloud band of the year through the nation and with that, bringing mixed blessings in relation to who gets what in terms of rainfall totals.


Simulated Water Vapour Satellite - Next 10 days. Note that even though the event from this week moves east, there is more moisture to work with into the end of the month and to kick off July.

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