Heavy rainfall is developing offshore the coastline in both VIC and NSW this morning, wrapping around an upper low over the Riverina and being enhanced by a surface trough laying over the region.

A moderate to high chance of flash flooding is possible from Tuesday through Wednesday.

The moist onshore easterly wind regime will continue to drive that heavy rainfall along the coast as the upper low moves slowly north and meanders about before it gets kicked out on Thursday.

So the threat for heavy rainfall starts from late this morning, with some locations likely to see rainfall rates of 20-50mm/hr especially if thunderstorms are involved in the mix. The heaviest of the rainfall is anticipated between Barinsdale to Orbost through to Pt Hicks up to Narooma and will extend a fair way inland to the GDR.

Flash Flood Risk for Tuesday 11th May 2021.

The rain and heavy falls will continue for this region during Wednesday as the low wafts around aimlessly meaning more of the same, some areas could see 50-100mm in a matter of hours within this time frame. Given that some areas of seen heavy rainfall so far this month, minor flooding may redevelop along river systems in this region.

Rainfall totals of 50-100mm should be widespread with a narrow region receiving 100-200mm throughout the coming 24 to 48hrs. Some areas could see falls closer to 300mm with thunderstorms.

Weather Matters - Rainfall for the next 4 days. Valid May 11th 2021.

The weather will begin to dry out as the easterly flow begins to wane and turn variable during Wednesday night. A shift back to a west or northwest flow will develop from Thursday, so showers along the coast should decrease rapidly and relatively fine conditions from the afternoon.

The rainfall focus then shifts back into Victoria and Tasmania with the next two cold fronts moving through.

It will feel much colder this weekend with frosts returning to large parts of the east.

Euro 12z run - Flow pattern at 18000ft for the coming 10 days.

Want more tailored forecasts and information for your needs? email me at karllijnders@weathermatters.org

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