HEAVY RAINFALL EASING OVER THE NATION BUT MORE LOOMS FROM LATER NEXT WEEK.

It is a very messy night out there, with many areas seeing torrential rainfall in recent days, the rainfall continues to be heavy tonight as the low pressure system moves east from SA and deepens over Central NSW with periods of heavy rainfall rotating around this feature for the coming 24 hours for NSW, QLD and into VIC.


The rainfall and thunderstorms begin to move out from later tomorrow but persists over the southeast states in unstable onshore winds.


The weather dries out from early in the week nationwide, if you are living over western, northern and central Australia, the weather much drier in fact from tomorrow.


BUT - the moisture is set to return to the nation from mid next week and build from that point on with showers and thunderstorms spreading throughout the nation from next weekend.


Lets look at the latest data sets.


SHORT TERM

Significant rain and thunderstorms are ongoing tonight and through Friday before easing is expected over NSW and QLD. Showers will persist over the southeast this weekend while the remainder of the nation is settled under high pressure. Even the tropics remain fairly dry, though far northern areas may be stormy this weekend and again mid week. The first half of next week is quiet.


UKMET - Rainfall Next 7 Days - HIGH CHANCE

Note the moisture rebuilding over the northwest from the Indian Ocean.

MEDIUM TERM

The medium term is where we find the next chance of rainfall building. Deeper moisture profile establishes over northern Australia and we have moisture streaming in from the north and west of the nation via the jet stream and waning negative IOD. Then we have easterly winds developing across much of the nation with that airstream pumping higher moisture values thanks to the above SSTs over the Coral Sea and Pacific Ocean. A symptom of La Nina developing.


ICON - Rainfall Next 8 Days - LOW CHANCE

Too dry in the outlook.

CMC - Rainfall Next 10 Days

Note the moisture coming back through WA and into the southern states.

EURO - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE.

Has moisture coming back into the medium term through the south and east, just a little slower than other models.

ACCESS - Rainfall Next 10 Days

More aggressive on the moisture return, I am inclined to lean with that idea, but how that looks remains to be seen.

KMA - Rainfall Next 12 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

This idea of easterly winds bringing back rain and heavy rainfall to the east is across ACCESS, GFS and KMA and this model is more aggressive of the moisture return through the nation from day 8 onwards.

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

Aggressive on the moisture coming out of the Indian Ocean and creeping southwards from the tropics and via easterly winds.

ENSEMBLE DATA

The data sets are trending wetter in the longer term, and you will be able to see that more from later tomorrow once we lose the rainfall ongoing over the nation at the moment. Then we can establish a clearer picture on how much is on the way from around the 18-19 of November and beyond, as there are hints of a long duration unsettled humid period. The one saving grace is there is no severe weather events beyond this one for 7 days.


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) LOW CHANCE

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - MODERATE CHANCE


LONG TERM

A very wet run continues into Christmas, again especially for the east and north. This is additional rainfall to come.


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

The ensemble also very wet

More tomorrow from 7am EDT. Stay weather aware and safe overnight.


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