HEADS UP FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER NEXT WEEK

A heads up forecast for those forward planning about the next chance of severe weather next week. More to come on this as we go through the weekend but I thought it would be apt to post about it now and show you the areas of concern moving forward.


More moisture than this week, a sharper trough and excellent dynamics will support strong to severe storms again for southern and eastern Australia is the headline.


Severe Weather Outlook Tuesday

Heads up for the next storm system coming in from the west and linking up with deep moisture profile through the central parts of the nation surging south and another trough running into this moisture and this leading to showers and thunderstorms developing. The moisture and atmospheric instability is deeper, more widespread and this will lead to a good chance of severe thunderstorms returning to much of SA from Tuesday at this stage, clipping the southern NT and the tri state regions. The weather humid and warm over SA and VIC/NSW. Upper ridge of the east keeping the weather fine.

Severe Weather Outlook Wednesday

The lead trough slowly moves eastwards and there is likely to be an active area of thunderstorms develop on and east of this feature over eastern SA and through to western NSW and VIC. Humid air throughout the east and southeast will mean thunderstorms will be excellent rainfall producers and all modes of severe weather are possible, but large hail may be a lesser risk at this stage.

Severe Weather Outlook Thursday

The trough sharpens during Thursday of next week and with a very deep moisture layer in place, storms will be easily able to produce flash flooding and damaging outflow winds. With PW values near 50mm over inland areas, these storms will be dumpers. There is also a chance of thick cloud cover about the eastern and central inland under such an environment which could be a mitigating factor against high end severe weather next week but at this stage, this is a flagged area for widespread showers and thunderstorms with heavy falls possible.

DATA


18Z GFS - CAPE Values - Next 7 days

The atmosphere through this period is expected to be conditionally unstable with troughs developing out of the humid and hot weather over northern Australia. The upper level winds propelling these troughs south and east next week and then the troughs becoming slow moving, as they hit the ridge over the east, meaning a multi day storm event for much of SA, VIC and NSW at this stage is quite possible.

18Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 7 days

Moisture is no problem in terms of high values, the problem will lay with storms producing heavy amounts of rainfall in quick time and looking at the upper air pattern, they will be quite slow moving so some areas could see an absolute drenching.

I will have more details about the severe weather unfolding in the coming week.




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