HARVEST OUTLOOK - TAKING US THROUGH TO EARLY JANUARY 2022

Significant and disruptive weather in the short and medium term is expected to continue through longer term until Christmas and possibly even into New Year for QLD, NSW, ACT, VIC and parts of SA and the NT. This is a very nasty outlook and flooding is trending a very high risk over the course of the next 6 weeks and I hope that this forecast does not verify.


The west looks a lot quieter and potentially getting hotter!! What a treat...will that move eastwards into the east at all?


I know there are a lot of rogue social media pages will eventually jump on each system as they come through adding clickbait discussions but make sure you have reputable weather information and access to official warnings. That is why you are here :)


Lets take a look.

FORECAST

Rainfall Outlook Next 6 Weeks - November 23rd 2021 - January 6th 2022

% chance of exceeding the median rainfall for the coming 6 weeks

The wetter as you go through Australia continues in line with the waning negative IOD phase, the deepening La Nina phase and the persistent positive SAM signal. The wet weather ramping up this weekend and really not taking a break for parts of eastern QLD and NSW over the coming fortnight. For the tropics the rainfall is expected to rapidly increase after a very hot week. The heat that has been in place over the north of the nation helping to draw in the tropical weather to the north. The wet signal does extend to most all of the nation but it is a lower risk over the southern and southwest, but even there, wet weather is expected. Flooding and severe flooding is possible in many areas during this period if the data verifies. Rainfall is conditional over WA and dependent upon the movement of tropical moisture to the north and placement of troughs and low pressure systems which is common for this time of year for this region.

Temperature Outlook Next 6 Weeks - November 23rd 2021 - January 6th 2022

% chance of exceeding the median temperatures for the coming 6 weeks

The cooler bias over the nation continues through this period in line with the wet phase of weather, no change in that signal at this time out east and north and through central areas, however we are seeing a warming trend through western areas, with persistent easterly winds, finally some parts of WA will return to summer weather.

Humidity Outlook Next 6 Weeks - November 23rd 2021 - January 6th 2022

% chance of exceeding the median humidity for the coming 6 weeks

Excessive moisture levels are expected to remain in place over vast areas of the nation, especially in the east with the persistent easterly winds and tropical moisture also be drawn through the country from northwest through southeast. All of this pooling through the inland not only lifting rainfall chances, but disease risk for crops and interruption to harvest. This week will give you an idea of how the next 6 weeks will unfold.

Disease Outlook - November 23rd 2021 - January 6th 2022

No shift in the guidance with the food bowl looking at atrocious conditions relating to the high humidity and the wet weather and mild to warm conditions. This is the perfect conditions for prolonged disease inducing weather. The mitigating factor will be if the temperatures remain below average as this could offset the height of the humid/sultry weather.

Severe Thunderstorm Risks to Farming Next 6 Weeks - November 16th- December 31st 2021

I am moving the hail risk down the list of concern now and it is transitioning now to flooding issues. We have multiple flood warnings throughout the inland of QLD, NSW and southern and eastern VIC. Further heavy rainfall this weekend will lead to more widespread flooding, mainly through NSW and VIC but with the signals for elevated rainfall beyond the short and medium term, the heightened chance of an early monsoon over the north with tropical systems lurking, this will lead to the flood risk expanding further across northern and eastern Australia, but if you are living out west, you are also sitting ducks for flooding with wet catchments from above average rainfall.


Flash Flood Risk December 2021

The flash flood risk is also excessive for the period of 6 weeks into December which is going to cause disruption right throughout the nation. The flash flood risk is running pretty high from eastern SA, through parts of VIC, NSW, ACT and QLD this week alone. This will spread to other areas through the coming 4-6 weeks.

Riverine Flood Risk Summer 2021/22

The flood risk is ongoing and continues through December and January. Keep up to date with the short and medium term forecasts in the east. The weather should turn wetter over the inland of WA as tropical weather increases as well.

CLIMATE DASHBOARD

We are seeing the impacts of the warning negative phase of the IOD across the country in the coming 1-2 weeks, TC Paddy a result of the IOD influence and that moisture shearing off into the northwest jet stream, with higher rainfall chances spreading from northwest to southeast, particularly from SA into the eastern states, we have seen that yesterday and today. Recent rainfall of 60-80mm over inland WA also showing this. That IOD phase will resolve by the end of the month but the lag is 2 weeks, taking us into early December. The ENSO is the driver that is taking over, with a La Nina phase underway and strengthening in the next 4-6 weeks, likely to peak in January before waning through February. The SSTs in the Coral Sea suggest that the La Nina is here. So it is moot point about agencies declaring the event underway, the weather does the talking. The SAM remaining positive for the end of the month after a brief stint back to neutral values again later this week into the weekend will return into the positive phase into December.

DATA - Refer to video for more on these sets of data


RAINFALL

Euro Rainfall Accumulation Ensemble Data - Next 6 Weeks - November 22nd 2021 - January 6th 2022

The majority of members increasing the rainfall signal over the east but many have a lot more than advertised here. Flooding as mentioned in the short and medium term forecasts continues well beyond into the longer term. This has the spread of rainfall correct with the further west you go, the lighter the rainfall, but even then, most of the nation still expecting above average rainfall.

Euro Rainfall Accumulation Control Data - Next 6 Weeks - November 22nd 2021 - January 6th 2022

Exceptional rainfall totals in the southeast and east, with inland flooding continuing to increase in chance over VIC, NSW and QLD. The tropical weather also well above normal in terms of coverage. This could also feed the west coast trough and bring above average rainfall through WA, as well as any subsequent tropical features running through the western interior lifting inland flooding. SA Ag Areas looking to see on the edge of the worst of the flooding rainfall potential....at this stage.

Euro Rainfall Anomalies - Next 6 Weeks - November 22nd 2021 - January 6th 2022

The numbers continue to increase above the average for this period as we end the year and kick off 2022. It is very concerning levels of rainfall for the east ontop of the flooding we have already got in place. The tropics are harder to forecast ahead of time but there is a high chance of above average rainfall continuing.

The Euro Control Anomalies for the coming 6 weeks - this has major flooding written all over it.

CFS Rainfall Accumulation Control Data- Next 6 Weeks - November 22nd 2021 - January 6th 2022

The very wet signal continues on the deterministic data set, this model does not pick the tropical weather well at all, and if you use a little bit of logic, if this is showing the rainfall as is across the nation without the early onset rainfall signal, there is every chance that it may be UNDERDOING rainfall totals over the east in particular which is cause for concern. The tropical rainfall is well understated here.

GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 5 Weeks - November 22nd - December 26th 2021

Significant rainfall signals continue for eastern Australia and tropical rainfall expected to rapidly evolve over the course of the next 2 weeks and by mid December, above average rainfall and cooler temperatures can be expected up north but likely to persist from now until mid December over the eastern parts of the nation.

GFS Rainfall Anomalies - Next 5 Weeks - November 22nd - December 26th 2021

Progressively getting wetter over the east and far north with the monsoon deepening. But this is likely running too dry elsewhere given the current climatic guidance.

CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 4 Weeks - November 19th - December 19th 2021

We are seeing the wet phase ramp up once again during this weekend and this model suggests that the wet phase will continue for the coming 4 weeks until just before Christmas. I do not see much dry weather in the coming 4 weeks for NSW and QLD in particular and frequent rainfall for VIC, SA and WA. The tropical north seeing a very early start to the wet season with regular rainfall starting from next week.

CMC Rainfall Anomalies - Next 4 Weeks - November 19th - December 19th

The excessive wet phase is expected to continue as we run into Christmas. The dramatic signal from northern Australia is a concern for those needing dry weather. Blue shadings in a time when the north is wet spells trouble for further flooding rainfall across the nation and cooler weather. This is only the next 4 weeks which shows you how wet the phase is.

TEMPERATURES

Euro Temperature Anomalies - Next 6 Weeks - November 22nd 2021 - January 7th 2022

This is still the right solution with the cooler bias over the east reflective of the high moisture levels, persistent onshore winds over the coming 3-4 weeks, low pressure troughs leading to rain and thunderstorm outbreaks suppressing any heat being able to build. The west coast in the persistent easterly flow could be above average with a dry hot airmass remaining in place under a ridge.. Tropics likely to turn wetter and more seasonal though the coverage of rainfall being above average will lead to more cloud and below average temperatures.

GFS Temperature Anomalies - Next 5 Weeks - November 22nd- December 26th 2021

Still a little too warm over the northern tropics and extending inland but IF this was to be right, the warmer air would pose a problem for those not wanting rainfall or severe weather through this period. The warmer the air gets, the more moisture it can hold and the more rainfall we will see. Something to consider, but not overwhelmingly a high chance of occurring. The weather over the east coast cooler with persistent easterly winds and rain and over WA which would be connected to tropical moisture surging southeast.

I wish you all the very best of luck - you have had this information for some time so I really hope that even though the forecasts are not 100% perfect that the analysis has assisted in ensuring you can make the right decisions for your location and properties as the weather is really as wet as I have seen in 20 years. Good luck again out east!







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