HARVEST OUTLOOK - NEXT 6 WEEK FORECAST

No real change to the guidance for the nation, the tropics as expected turning more humid and unsettled, but with the climate drivers as they are, that will support wet and humid weather extending south and east throughout Australia. The bias of heavy rainfall the further north and east you go through the nation will continue.


So at a quick glance, finding a dry day over the southern and eastern parts of the nation will be hard to find. Even parts of WA may continue to see above average rainfall, that moisture impacting above average rainfall chances for SA as well.


A lot of weather not just in the short term, but between now and the first week of January 2022.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Outlook Next 6 Weeks - November 19th 2021 - January 3rd 2022

% chance of exceeding the median rainfall for the coming 6 weeks

The wetter as you go through Australia continues in line with the waning negative IOD phase, the deepening La Nina phase and the persistent positive SAM signal. The wet weather ramping up this weekend and really not taking a break for parts of eastern QLD and NSW over the coming fortnight. For the tropics the rainfall is expected to rapidly increase after a very hot week. The heat that has been in place over the north of the nation helping to draw in the tropical weather to the north. The wet signal does extend to most all of the nation but it is a lower risk over the southern and southwest, but even there, wet weather is expected. Flooding and severe flooding is possible in many areas during this period if the data verifies.

Temperature Outlook Next 6 Weeks - November 19th 2021 - January 3rd 2022

% chance of exceeding the median temperatures for the coming 6 weeks

The cooler bias over the nation continues through this period in line with the wet phase of weather, no change in that signal at this time.

Humidity Outlook Next 6 Weeks - November 19th 2021 - January 3rd 2022

% chance of exceeding the median humidity for the coming 6 weeks

Excessive moisture levels are expected to remain in place over vast areas of the nation, especially in the east with the persistent easterly winds and tropical moisture also be drawn through the country from northwest through southeast. All of this pooling through the inland not only lifting rainfall chances, but disease risk for crops and interruption to harvest.

Disease Outlook - November 19th 2021 - January 3rd 2022

No shift in the guidance with the food bowl looking at atrocious conditions relating to the high humidity and the wet weather and mild to warm conditions. This is the perfect conditions for prolonged disease inducing weather.

Severe Thunderstorm Risks to Farming Next 6 Weeks - November 16th- December 31st 2021

I am moving the hail risk down the list of concern now and it is transitioning now to flooding issues. We have multiple flood warnings throughout the inland of QLD, NSW and southern and eastern VIC. Further heavy rainfall this weekend will lead to more widespread flooding, mainly through NSW and VIC but with the signals for elevated rainfall beyond the short and medium term, the heightened chance of an early monsoon over the north with tropical systems lurking, this will lead to the flood risk expanding further across northern and eastern Australia, but if you are living out west, you are also sitting ducks for flooding with wet catchments from above average rainfall.


Riverine Flood Risk - Next 6 Weeks - November 19th 2021 - January 3rd 2022

The flood risk remains very high through interior parts of the nation and this may extend to coastal areas in the east of QLD, NSW and VIC. The risk is in line with the early onset rainfall signal which has been strong. Forecast the worst and hope for the best is the motto. Catchments are at capacity in many areas of NSW and eastern VIC and flooding is likely if rainfall forecasts verify.

Flash Flood Risk December 2021

The flash flood risk is also excessive for the period of 6 weeks into December which is going to cause disruption right throughout the nation.

Riverine Flood Risk Summer 2021/22

Depending on how the La Nina evolves this risk area may expand even further. I do suspect the high to very high riverine flood risk will be in December and January at this time, but as mentioned depending on how the La Nina event develops, the risk of flooding along the east coast may persist through March as per the previous event. A very high risk of flooding over the tropics is nothing unusual, however the scale of flooding may be excessive so that is something to consider if you are in the freight industry.

CLIMATE DASHBOARD

We are seeing the impacts of the warning negative phase of the IOD across the country in the coming 1-2 weeks, with higher rainfall chances spreading from northwest to southeast, particularly from SA into the eastern states. That IOD phase will resolve by the end of the month but the lag is 2 weeks. The ENSO is the driver that is taking over, with a La Nina phase underway and strengthening in the next 4-6 weeks, likely to peak in January before waning through February. The SAM remaining positive for the end of the month after a brief stint back to neutral values this week, but the impact of the SAM will increase during the latter part of November and into December where a positive phase likely to linger.

DATA - Refer to video for more on these sets of data


RAINFALL

Euro Rainfall Accumulation Ensemble Data - Next 6 Weeks - November 19th 2021 - January 3rd 2022

The majority of members increasing the rainfall signal over the east but many have a lot more than advertised here. If this was to verify, the flooding risks over eastern VIC, NSW and QLD would be high to very high and the tropical weather would be running 2-3 weeks ahead of schedule. The interior of the nation also very wet, increasing the chance of above average rainfall for much of the nation bar the very far west, but even there it is seasonal rainfall values. A remarkable signal for wet weather.

Euro Rainfall Accumulation Control Data - Next 6 Weeks - November 19th 2021 - January 3rd 2022

Exceptional rainfall totals in the southeast and east, with inland flooding continuing to increase in chance over VIC, NSW and QLD. The tropical weather also well above normal in terms of coverage. This could also feed the west coast trough and bring above average rainfall through WA. SA Ag Areas looking to see on the edge of the worst of the flooding rainfall potential....for now.

Euro Rainfall Anomalies - Next 6 Weeks - November 19th 2021 - January 3rd 2022

The numbers continue to increase above the average for this period as we end the year and kick off 2022. That means between now and the start of 2022, a high to very high risk of flooding in the east continues. Seasonal to above seasonal rainfall elsewhere through the nation will keep temperatures cooler and suppress heatwave activity. The tropics starting to turn very damp from as early as late next week onwards.

CFS Rainfall Accumulation Control Data- Next 6 Weeks - November 19th 2021 - January 3rd 2022

The very wet signal continues on the deterministic data set, this model does not pick the tropical weather well at all, and if you use a little bit of logic, if this is showing the rainfall as is across the nation without the early onset rainfall signal, there is every chance that it may be UNDERDOING rainfall totals over the east in particular which is cause for concern.

GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 5 Weeks - November 19th - December 22nd 2021

Significant rainfall signals continue for eastern Australia and tropical rainfall expected to rapidly evolve over the course of the next 2 weeks and by mid December, above average rainfall and cooler temperatures can be expected. The early onset rainfall means higher rainfall chances for southern and eastern areas of the nation, some of this moisture likely to run down into WA as well.

GFS Rainfall Anomalies - Next 5 Weeks - November 19th - December 22nd 2021

This product has been getting progressively wetter as we go, you can see pockets of drier weather but just like the above average rainfall signal, these areas can also expect to see rainfall. But the take away is, where the rainfall events do emerge, they will be proficient rainfall producers and flash and riverine flooding is a risk through the coming 5 weeks until about Christmas, especially over the north and east.

CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 4 Weeks - November 19th - December 19th 2021

We are seeing the wet phase ramp up once again during this weekend and this model suggests that the wet phase will continue for the coming 4 weeks until just before Christmas. I do not see much dry weather in the coming 4 weeks for NSW and QLD in particular and frequent rainfall for VIC, SA and WA. The tropical north seeing a very early start to the wet season with regular rainfall starting from next week.

CMC Rainfall Anomalies - Next 4 Weeks - November 19th - December 19th

The excessive wet phase is expected to continue as we run into Christmas. The dramatic signal from northern Australia is a concern for those needing dry weather. Blue shadings in a time when the north is wet spells trouble for further flooding rainfall across the nation and cooler weather. This is only the next 4 weeks which shows you how wet the phase is.

TEMPERATURES

Euro Temperature Anomalies - Next 6 Weeks - November 19th 2021 - January 3rd 2022

This is probably the right solution still with the widespread rainfall, the bias being over the east coast, leading to those below average temperatures. Near seasonal elsewhere with more rainfall than normal with thick cloud cover dominating the next 4-6 weeks (which is what you are seeing right now).

GFS Temperature Anomalies - Next 5 Weeks - November 19th- December 25th 2021

Still a little too warm over the northern tropics and extending inland but IF this was to be right, the warmer air would pose a problem for those not wanting rainfall or severe weather through this period. The warmer the air gets, the more moisture it can hold and the more rainfall we will see. Something to consider, but not overwhelmingly a high chance of occurring. The weather over the east coast cooler with persistent easterly winds and rain and over WA which would be connected to tropical moisture surging southeast.

CMC Temperature Anomalies - Next 4 Weeks - November 19th- December 19th 2021

The temperature bias continues to be cold on the CMC with this being the coldest model out of the three. I think with the excess cloud cover and rainfall potential, the cooler bias will continue but there will be the odd day here and there that will be hot across the nation, especially as we get clean out weather systems passing through the southern states. The odd cold front (we get one a month in Summer) is that clean out feature.

I will update this again during Tuesday and keep focussed on the short and medium term forecasts throughout the weekend as the model madness means that some areas will be sitting ducks for flooding as early as the end of the weekend and don't know it yet because the guidance is so poor.






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