HARVEST - ISSUES TO CONSIDER AHEAD OF THE SEASON APPROACHING.

FORECAST HARVEST PERIOD

Rainfall Outlook

The coming months are very wet leading into October to December 2022. This period will be dominated by the peak of the Indian Ocean Dipole and the increasing impact of the ENSO region shifting back to La Nina conditions. So what we saw last year is likely to be repeated but with the caveat that we have a more aggressive influence from the Indian Ocean Dipole this year. So that influence will drive the high humidity values and severe weather impacts (see further below). Rainfall could be well above the norm, but once again, this is based off data that is all skewed towards the wetter than normal period. As with all things in a natural science, these forecasts are for general consumption and the further you go out in forecasting the less reliable it becomes. Some media outlets were suggesting the wettest Winter on record for many areas in southern and interior parts of the nation, that has been observed over the northeast and east of the country, so things do not always go to plan. However, with the current guidance and the climate drivers in place we are expecting to see the harvest period to unfold at similar rates to last year. So, prepare for that being the reference point for 2022.

Temperature Outlook

The cooler bias continues to hold rather firm for interior parts and over the eastern and southeast inland, especially the food bowl, in response to the developing and peaking negative IOD phase throughout Spring. This will lead to excessive cloud cover and above average rainfall, BUT it does not mean cold. Similar to last year, the rates of rainfall and cloud bands passing through with the higher humidity values will lead to a soupy airmass. So, while daytime temperatures are likely below the average, overnights will be above the average. The northern parts of the nation looking warmer and more humid than normal, with that spreading south and southwest from there into the heart of the nation, mixing with the unstable air leading to those widespread rainfall chances. Seasonal weather for most coastal areas with fluctuating temperatures.

Humidity Outlook

A very high chance of excessive moisture values being observed through most of the country through this period, with high rainfall rates, large cloud bands and above average rainfall. This in combination with the saturated soils throughout the nation's north, cental and most likely the eastern inland, will lead to a higher risk of flooding developing across areas of Agricultural Australia. The higher humidity values will visit the southern parts of the nation but more likely to see reprieve from the very high humidity values with the westerly and southwesterly winds coming in with high pressure and following cold fronts. But elevated SSTs surrounding the nation, including southern Australia, places all regions at a higher chance of seeing elevated humidity. Last year we saw that result in areas recording very heavy rainfall through October and November resulting in high impact flooding across inland NSW in particular.

Frost Risk

Frost risk probably a little generous in terms of distribution in relation to the upgraded humidity and rainfall prospects, but I will leave it here for now for October, the risk after about mid October has contracted to the southern inland of the nation at a low risk rating.

Severe Thunderstorm Outbreaks Spring 2022

The storm outlook looks very much above average for most areas, with a critical risk for the harvest period ahead and I cannot stress enough to prepare your business for that, like in all things, mitigation of the risk is key, and this season is screaming above average weather impacts. With that said, most of the region should see a number of challenging weather events mainly related to higher moisture and rainfall features, but for pockets of northern and eastern NSW and QLD and possibly the area around the ACT, large hail and flash flooding is a risk as well in the larger storm outbreaks. Through VIC, the state will be divided in half with the north and east seeing above average storm outbreaks, especially the northeast with all modes of severe weather an issue. More seasonal expectations are likely for western areas of VIC, back through SA and into WA. Inland areas of WA could be dealing with a lot of rainfall as we move through Spring and that may extend into SA, but severe storms are likely to feature further east, with rain bands the feature here. Over the northern tropics, an early onset to the storm season will mean more vigorous convection and severe thunderstorms from mid Spring onward.


SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN AUSTRALIA.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA

SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA

SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA

NORTHERN AUSTRALIA

Flash Flood Risk 2022

Running very high through much of the nation thanks to the higher moisture loads via the elevated SSTs across western, northern and eastern areas of the country and this leading to a higher-than-normal risk against averages for this period. With saturated catchments forecast on the current climate guidance for large areas of southern QLD, much of inland NSW, through VIC and interior SA back to WA, these areas are sitting ducks through the Spring IF the rainfall rates do eventuate to the significant flash flooding. The higher risk is certainly located in the back half of Spring as we find the warmer air mass holds more moisture leading to higher rainfall rates.

NORTHERN AUSTRALIA

NORTHEAST AND EASTERN AUSTRALIA

EASTERN INLAND

SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN INLAND

SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA

SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA

NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA

Large Hail Risk 2022

If you live in QLD and northern NSW, you know the drill when it comes to storm season through September to April, that hail is a part of life in these regions any given year, with the climate drivers only suppressing or enhancing the risk of large hail. This year the climate drivers are enhancing the risk in this region which is known as storm alley. But the hail risk will be expanded at above average threat levels over the remainder of NSW and QLD and dip into northern and eastern VIC, with near seasonal values points west through VIC and into southern and eastern SA, which here too, can see 1-3 hail outbreaks per Spring. At this time, there is not much to suggest above average risks for the southeast and southern inland of the nation. Out west we can expect 1-2 events per spring across the SWLD and points eastwards into the Wheatbelt and Goldfields. Along the coast it is much trickier to get large hail firing here. Obviously through northern Australia, hail does not feature too often, but if you are a mango or melon farmer etc., please be aware that the early storm season opens the door for hail to come down in the buildup storms through October and November.

SOUTH EASTERN INLAND

EASTERN INLAND

CENTRAL AUSTRALIA

SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA

SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA

Riverine Flood Risk 2022

The riverine flood risk is expected to be elevated with relation to the developing negative Indian Ocean Dipole and this seeding the jet stream with an abundance of moisture. So do expect the weather to become wetter as we go, more unstable as we go and as the air warms, the more widespread and heavier the rainfall is expected to be through the Spring. The frequency of the rainfall events will have a large bearing on the flood intensity, and at this stage it looks to emulate what we saw back in 2016, but the international climate guidance suggests it could be more intense than this, but I am of the belief of sticking with median. So, if you are living near or in the Food Bowl, your risk of flooding near or through your property is running high and will increase as we move through the season.

SOUTHEAST INLAND

SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA

EASTERN INLAND

CENTRAL AUSTRALIA

WESTERN INLAND

SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA

HARVEST ISSUES

The excessive rainfall and higher humidity values are expected to cause some concern for all cropping farmers, not just in relation to the flooding potential outlined above and severe storms, but the disease risk to crop and the downgrading of crops are likely this year, the higher risk is found over in the Food Bowl and parts of SA. While it is decent way away, the risk of damage and downgrading is a real risk and should be noted. So, expect to take a hit to your bottom line this year but many have planned for this already off the guidance of last year so many of you shouldn't be surprised. High to very high risk with the potential of severe damage in the deeper brown shading with thunderstorms and high rainfall events but understand that specifics will become available as we track through the season, so if you are in the deeper brown tones, that denotes the higher risk is for storms and rainfall to cause problems in this region. It eclipses last year's prognostics. Also, the risk of disease to crops due to high humidity is running very high.


QUEENSLAND

FOOD BOWL

SOUTHERN AGRICULTURAL

SOUTHWEST LAND DIVISION

DATA SETS - This is the latest set of data from the July run of international model agencies.


Euro Rainfall Anomalies - October 2022

Euro Temperature Anomalies - October 2022

Euro Rainfall Anomalies - November 2022

Euro Temperature Anomalies - November 2022

Euro Rainfall Anomalies - Spring 2022

Euro Temperature Anomalies - Spring 2022

IRI/CPC Rainfall Anomalies - August 2022

More on this in the video at the top of the page as well. I have posted this many times this week and you can now compare with the Euro and other models to see how it is fairing.

IRI/CPC Temperature Anomalies - August 2022


So, as you can see there is a lot of effort going in to help give you all you need to know! I am working around the clock to ensure if there are any changes to the guide you are across it so be sure to check back here, the Facebook pages and many more areas to consume my material.




245 views0 comments